Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing price is strictly above 7,710.00 on Friday, September 4, 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,710.00.

The primary source of truth for the index's closing price will be Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or, as a secondary source, Google Finance (INDEXSP: .INX).

If U.S. stock markets are unexpectedly closed on Friday, September 4, 2026, this market will resolve based on the closing price of the next official trading day.

Background

The S&P 500 index ended trading on Friday, August 28, 2026, at 7,711.76. The close marked a weekly gain of 0.49% and brought the index’s month-to-date return to nearly 3%, continuing a historically strong setup for the latter part of the year. However, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, signaling a willingness to tighten monetary policy further to combat inflation, have introduced some near-term volatility and raised expectations for a September rate hike.