20-Mana Participation Bonus
Anyone who places a bet on at least 5 events and comments on the market to let me know will receive a 20 Mana bonus.
Each option resolves independently to YES or NO depending on whether the stated event occurs during the resolution period.
Market creation time: 11:45 PM EDT on September 4, 2026
Resolution period: From 11:45 PM EDT on September 4, 2026 until 11:59:59 PM EDT on September 30, 2026.
Events that occurred before 11:45 PM EDT on September 4, 2026 do not count.
Options
Bitcoin trades above $90,000
Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades above $90,000 at any point during the resolution period. Primary source: Yahoo Finance.Bitcoin trades below $70,000
Resolves YES if BTC/USD trades below $70,000 at any point during the resolution period. Primary source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500 closes at a new all-time high
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 records an official daily closing value higher than every previous official daily close. Primary source: S&P Global, with Yahoo Finance as a secondary source.Any Magnificent Seven stock moves at least 10% in a single trading day
Resolves YES if AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, or TSLA records a regular-session daily percentage move of at least +10% or -10% relative to its previous official close. Primary source: Yahoo Finance.Copper reaches a new all-time high
Resolves YES if Yahoo Finance Copper Futures (HG=F) trades above its previous all-time high at any point during the resolution period. The intraday high counts; an official daily close above the previous all-time high is not required. Primary source: Yahoo Finance Copper Futures (HG=F).SpaceX conducts an orbital or near-orbital Starship launch
Resolves YES if SpaceX launches Starship during the resolution period on a flight intended to reach an orbital or near-orbital trajectory. Static-fire tests, wet dress rehearsals, and aborted attempts before liftoff do not count. Primary source: SpaceX.Anthropic publicly releases a new named Claude model
Resolves YES if Anthropic makes a new named Claude model publicly available during the resolution period. Minor updates, renamed existing models, and internal-only test models do not count. Primary source: Anthropic.Google publicly releases a new named Gemini model
Resolves YES if Google or Google DeepMind makes a new named Gemini model publicly available during the resolution period. Minor updates, renamed existing models, and internal-only test models do not count. Primary source: Google / Google DeepMind.A newly released song reaches #1 on Spotify Global
Resolves YES if a song first commercially released during the resolution period reaches #1 on the Spotify Daily Global Top Songs chart before the end of the resolution period. Primary source: Spotify Charts.An Atlantic hurricane reaches Category 4 or 5 intensity
Resolves YES if an Atlantic tropical cyclone is officially classified as a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane during the resolution period. Primary source: NOAA / National Hurricane Center.A movie grosses at least $100 million worldwide during the resolution period
Resolves YES if any single film earns at least US$100 million in worldwide box-office revenue attributable to dates within the resolution period. Primary source: Box Office Mojo, with The Numbers as a secondary source.A song debuts at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100
Resolves YES if any song enters the Billboard Hot 100 at #1 on a chart published during the resolution period. A song that was already charting and later rises to #1 does not count. Primary source: Billboard.A Premier League player scores a hat-trick
Resolves YES if any player scores at least three goals in a single official Premier League match played during the resolution period. Primary source: Premier League.
General resolution rules
Each option resolves separately.
If an event occurs before the deadline but the authoritative source confirms or publishes it only after the deadline, the option still resolves YES, provided the underlying event itself occurred during the resolution period.
If sources conflict, the listed primary source takes precedence.
Unless otherwise specified, all monetary thresholds are in US dollars.
For borderline or unforeseen cases, resolution will follow the ordinary meaning of the option together with the rules above.
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@mods please resolve the six remaining answers. @bigyahu is now inactive and gave permission for mods to resolve.
1. Anthropic publicly releases a new named Claude model: YES. Claude Opus 5.5 was released Sep 22.
2. A magnitude 7.0+ earthquake occurs anywhere in the world: NO. USGS lists nothing above M6.6 from Sep 5 to Sep 30. The largest was M6.6 near New Cal
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000txpi
3. A song debuts at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100: NO. "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley was #1 on every chart
published in the period (issue dates Sep was already charting, so nothing debuted at #1.
List of Bil of 2026 - Wikipedia
4. Bitcoin trades above $90,000: NO. The out $87,400 on Sep 23.
5. Bitcoin trades below $70,000: NO. The ut $74,900 on Sep 15.
6. S&P 500 closes at a new all-time high:the period was 7,764.64 on Sep 22, belowthe record close of 7,798.99 from Aug 13.
Probably resolves YES with 3.8 Live. There's a distinction between this and 3.8 Flash (Cyber)
@bigyahu what source might you use for this? nothing in description, seems the criteria for the hurricane would have been for this option but the answer changed?
@traders due to extenuating circumstances, i am quitting manifold and will not be able to monitor and manage my markets, i give permission to community members to decide on resolution and for mods to resolve for me independently, as the criteria are publicly available and are unlikely to be ambiguous.
@traders please inform me when you think any option should resolve, as i may not be tracking them actively! will do my best to resolve quickly once i see your comments