Will the S&P 500 close above 7,720 on Friday?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily closing price is strictly above 7,720 on Friday, September 11, 2026. It will resolve to NO if the index closes at or below 7,720.00.

The primary source of truth for the index's closing price will be Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or, as a secondary source, Google Finance (INDEXSP: .INX).

If U.S. stock markets are unexpectedly closed on Friday, September 11, 2026, this market will resolve based on the closing price of the next official trading day.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 56% chance (2 traders, as of Sep 4, 2026).

Resolution criteria

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