Will Manifold solve my puzzle?
61
1kṀ32k
Dec 31
49%
chance

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of five letters.

Let's say you're submitting an answer on November 5th, and you wanted to submit "XABDU" as your solution, you would write a comment: "11/5/25: XABDU".

Please do not try to brute-force this. Each user gets one guess per calendar day, I'm not going to check every single time stamp diligently so don't abuse this rule or I will block you from the market and be sad.

I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human) at a random-ish time. If the value of the market is below 50%, I will give a single hint, which I will compile in the description over time. If the value of the market is above 50% (inclusive), I will not give a hint.

I think this puzzle will be hard. The more time that passes without hints, the less likely you will be to solve it. I anticipate that you will need at least ten hints to solve it, possibly far more. You might need to collaborate. You have until the end of the year!

11/3 Hint 1: Portugal

11/4 Hint 2: harbor

11/5 no hint today

11/6 no hint today

11/7 no hint today

11/8 no hint today

11/9 no hint today

11/10 no hint today

11/11 no hint today


EVERYTHING BELOW THIS LINE IS AI SUMMARY GIBBERISH


  • Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not reply to every guess. If there is no reply to a guess, assume it is not correct.

  • Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Incorrect guesses will be acknowledged with a like from the creator (rather than a written reply). If there is no response to a guess, assume it is incorrect.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no one guesses the correct solution by the market close date (midnight on 2025-12-31), the market will resolve NO.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If someone DDOS's the chat, the creator will block them from commenting (rather than resolving the market N/A or taking other action).

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11/11: start

11/25/11: AAAAI

11/11/25: AAACK

25/11/11: PORTO

@AxelHjmark ah already tried

No hint today.

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of five letters.

@bens Is the sequence of five letters a word?

@snazzlePop I cannot answer that

11/10: sucks

25/11/10: MKYMT

25/11/10: AAAAH

@Bayesian just another few hundred years of this and we’re bound to figure it out

11/10/25 AAAAG

No hint today… when will this hint shutdown end!?

@bens dec 25th. a Xmas present for the Xmas celebrators

@Stralor

Interesting strategy

I think this puzzle will be hard. The more time that passes without hints, the less likely you will be to solve it. I anticipate that you will need at least ten hints to solve it, possibly far more.

@bens (I won't actually force it that long. hell, I'm barely buying shares anymore, just waiting for slow decay, but others are!)

I agree. Some folks (myself included?) might be hanging on "ten hints" and their ego "I'm smart! I can solve it in <10" and missing the "possibly far more"

No hint today ;( Sad

11/9/25 seeds

11/9/25 Diogo

11/9/25 CEUTA

bought Ṁ3 NO

11/9/25 CANDY

I give this market a 10% chance of resolving yes

11/9/25 SHARP

11/09/2025 CHAUL

11/9/25 AAAAF

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