The YouTube channel Veritasium made a community post asking people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. Traders are encouraged to submit their own guesses via the link.
See the jar here: https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com
Backup link if the site is down: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bf-0VZmaLw3mPZeEXG6x7VJ7EAeSJHkl/view?usp=drivesdk
Companion market:
Outcome will be verified via media produced by Veritasium. If this information is not made public before January 1, 2030, then all market answers resolve N/A.
The Market Creator has no relation to Veritasium nor has knowledge of the correct answer at time of market creation. Market Creator may only trade on this market after 1 week of operation or after 10 unique traders have traded, whichever happens first. Market Creator cannot trade between knowing the correct answer and resolving the market. Market Creator or Mods may halt trading if Veritasium announces an imminent release of the correct answer.
People are also trading
I made a market for speculating about when this one will resolve: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be
I made a market for speculating about when this one will resolve: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be
https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com/ currently responds with "This deployment is temporarily paused". Could be something boring like them running out of hosting credits, or it could mean that the survey is over and they're now processing the results.
@retr0id Good catch! I put up a Google Drive link for it. I downloaded the video, planning just for this contingency.
@strutheo Am I late in some sort of upkeep action? I want to ensure I'm properly tending to this market.
Seeking a counterparty to help me exit from "500-999". I want liquidity in my balance. Does anybody want to take a maximally large NO order at 1% from me? Limit order is up, just trade for NO.
[Offer has been accepted]
@Quroe I counted over 800 beans visible from the video. If there are fewer than 200 additional 'invisible' beans left in that thing I am going to petition the mods to arrest Veritasium and arrange for a Manifold Trial.