How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, Low Resolution

180

1.2kṀ100k

2030

1,768 jelly beans

expected

ALL

0.1%

1 - 499

0.4%

500 - 999

1,000 - 1,499

87%

1,500 - 1,999

2,000 - 2,499

0.9%

2,500 - 2,999

0.1%

3,000 - 3,499

0.1%

3,500 - 3,999

4,000 - 4,499

4,500 - 4,999

0.1%

5,000 or greater

The YouTube channel Veritasium made a community post asking people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. Traders are encouraged to submit their own guesses via the link.

See the jar here: https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com

Backup link if the site is down: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Bf-0VZmaLw3mPZeEXG6x7VJ7EAeSJHkl/view?usp=drivesdk

Companion market:

Outcome will be verified via media produced by Veritasium. If this information is not made public before January 1, 2030, then all market answers resolve N/A.

The Market Creator has no relation to Veritasium nor has knowledge of the correct answer at time of market creation. Market Creator may only trade on this market after 1 week of operation or after 10 unique traders have traded, whichever happens first. Market Creator cannot trade between knowing the correct answer and resolving the market. Market Creator or Mods may halt trading if Veritasium announces an imminent release of the correct answer.

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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

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I made a market for speculating about when this one will resolve: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be

When will we know the Veritasium bean count?

For background: https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-jelly-beans-are-in-this-ja Day thresholds are midnight UTC+0, and will be the publish date of the youtube video and/or social media post where the count is first officially announced.

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I made a market for speculating about when this one will resolve: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be

When will we know the Veritasium bean count?

@retr0id Comment pinned!

Halting trades to review the newly released video.

I'm a little busy right now, but I've skimmed the video. I'm convinced that the bean count is not in this video. Reopening shortly...

bought Ṁ5 YES

Any Veritasium fans out there thinking the answer is 37^2 = 1369?

https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com/ currently responds with "This deployment is temporarily paused". Could be something boring like them running out of hosting credits, or it could mean that the survey is over and they're now processing the results.

@retr0id Good catch! I put up a Google Drive link for it. I downloaded the video, planning just for this contingency.

@Quroe drive link asks for authorization

@LyetKynes Oops! Try now. (Please confirm if it works.)

@Quroe working fine now, thanks

I failed to manually halt the market for today's Veritasium video, but I have reviewed it, and it did not contain the bean count.

still waiting!

@strutheo Am I late in some sort of upkeep action? I want to ensure I'm properly tending to this market.

@Quroe no im waiting for veritasium

@strutheo Let'm cook.

Hidden stats at time of comment:

Trade halt! New video! Reviewing...

False alarm. Reopening.

Seeking a counterparty to help me exit from "500-999". I want liquidity in my balance. Does anybody want to take a maximally large NO order at 1% from me? Limit order is up, just trade for NO.

[Offer has been accepted]

bought Ṁ10,245 NO

@Quroe I counted over 800 beans visible from the video. If there are fewer than 200 additional 'invisible' beans left in that thing I am going to petition the mods to arrest Veritasium and arrange for a Manifold Trial.

@Eliza We really need to figure out how that system will work.

reposted

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How many jelly beans are in this jar? Veritasium Challenge, High Resolution

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