Would anybody like to throw down?

The beans may never die.

@Eliza Manifold needs a bean jar that we control.

We need the Beans of the People! 🫘

The best way to know how many beans are in the jar is to buy the same jar and the same beans and fill it up.

@Eliza you also have to know the annealing temperature, so as to estimate the packing density

Ha, wow! It only took you 75 mana to swing my portfolio net worth by ~5k?!

@bens forgot the ping

@Quroe and I'll do it again if I have to!

@Quroe

@bens I'm recognizing that my psyche does not differentiate negative mana profit very much from actual physical pain.

@Quroe unrealized losses mean nothing to me. In my mind I hold the true register of what every forecast is worth and I do not deviate from it, in spite of the graphs and charts

@bens A lot of my forecasting ability relies on reading the chart and recursively feeding that info back into my trading behavior.

I am pretty bad at Predictle -- no market charts on my screen.

@Quroe every morning I tell myself that

>every event has a true, objective probability

>that kernel of truth exists inside my mind

>with the right effort, I can coax it out and liberate it from the cold void of uncertainty

Then, I simply manifest this into existence through my actions. Quite simple.

@bens I tend to coax out about 4 of those per year. Your regimen must be more effective than mine.

@Eliza once you realize that every event is related to every other event, you can simply take the probabilities you know that you know, and work backwards from there to extract all the other probabilities. If you know there is one fish in a well, there must be more.

@bens

>There is noise in the vacuum of what is real and what isn't.

>Find the boundary of that noise.

>Dance on that edge, extracting energy out of the vacuum.

>Attempt to exit your position entirely before the market closes.

Such is the creed of the market making volatility trader.

In other words, I can be pretty sure the market is dancing around the true probability if there is enough action on it. It's just a matter of steering back toward it, plus being over 90% or 95% sure I did not overshoot the true probability with my corrective snap-back.

@Quroe

> The white bird is invisible against the white sky.

> A single feather cascades down from the heavens.

> The hunter looses his arrow into the brightness above.

> A final note and the bird falls to the ground.

> You need not know the position of the prey when it drops signs down below.

@bens [swoons]

I made a market for speculating about when this one will resolve: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/when-will-we-know-the-veritasium-be

When will we know the Veritasium bean count?

For background: https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-jelly-beans-are-in-this-ja Day thresholds are midnight UTC+0, and will be the publish date of the youtube video and/or social media post where the count is first officially announced.

@retr0id Comment pinned!

Halting trades to review the newly released video.

I'm a little busy right now, but I've skimmed the video. I'm convinced that the bean count is not in this video. Reopening shortly...

Any Veritasium fans out there thinking the answer is 37^2 = 1369?

https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com/ currently responds with "This deployment is temporarily paused". Could be something boring like them running out of hosting credits, or it could mean that the survey is over and they're now processing the results.

@retr0id Good catch! I put up a Google Drive link for it. I downloaded the video, planning just for this contingency.

@Quroe drive link asks for authorization

@LyetKynes Oops! Try now. (Please confirm if it works.)

@Quroe working fine now, thanks