K, so there is actually a real info leak in the screenshot from @Quroe and IMO the market could actually move in response.

The jar is pictured with multiple people and if anyone was betting based on the country of origin of either the beans or the jars, they now have significantly more info on the likelihood of where this stuff was procured. There is of course some chance the jars have moved or people have moved, but it seems like the kind of thing people who researched for this market would like to look into.

This is especially relevant for anyone who was attempting to calculate the bean packing themselves.

@Eliza I was betting entirely on my method for counting the beans from the provided image/video of the beans, so this just doesn't move my estimation at all, lol.

There are not 2000 beans in there you guys are delusional lol

@bens do you know how many gummy candies I’ve eaten in my life? Beans! Bears!! Rings!!! I’m a gosh darn predator of pectin.

@bens All I'm gonna say is you BETTER be right.

But that jar is ridiculously large.

Maybe this is just a perspective trick.

@bens I don't think Costco stocks jars of beans this large

@Eliza it's the same jar as always, no?

@bens Yes except adding 3 humans for scale.

@Eliza but like... the beans' relative size proportional to the jar did not change! If the jar is bigger than expected, then the beans are also bigger than expected, no?!

@bens 2000 is just so many. Like... there are not 2000 beans in that jar! That's a lot of beans. What I do is I think about how long it would take me to eat that many beans, one after another. and work backwards from there

@bens You need to remember, part of manipulating markets in the comment section is PREYING upon peoples' natural reactions to stuff. You have to hit them really hard with obvious knee-jerk stuff.

In this case, imagine a 10x10x100cm box filled with orbs of diameter 1cm. This box has X number of orbs in it.

If you then convince people that actually that is a 10x10x100 METER box filled with orbs of 1 meter diameter, then they will perceive it as much more than X quantity of orbs.

@Eliza As a kid, I was asked "if you could have any superpower, what would it be?". I answered with, "I want to always be wrong. I want everything I truly believe to warp reality to make me wrong".

I look back at young me and still think that that answer was so clever.

@Quroe @Tumbles wait a second

@Quroe So once you test that superpower out a few times and start to truly believe that it works...

@A EXACTLY!

A screenshot from their most recent video:

(9:27 mark)

Would anybody like to throw down?

The beans may never die.

@Eliza Manifold needs a bean jar that we control.

We need the Beans of the People! 🫘

The best way to know how many beans are in the jar is to buy the same jar and the same beans and fill it up.

@Eliza you also have to know the annealing temperature, so as to estimate the packing density

Ha, wow! It only took you 75 mana to swing my portfolio net worth by ~5k?!

@bens forgot the ping

@Quroe and I'll do it again if I have to!

@Quroe

@bens I'm recognizing that my psyche does not differentiate negative mana profit very much from actual physical pain.

@Quroe unrealized losses mean nothing to me. In my mind I hold the true register of what every forecast is worth and I do not deviate from it, in spite of the graphs and charts

@bens A lot of my forecasting ability relies on reading the chart and recursively feeding that info back into my trading behavior.

I am pretty bad at Predictle -- no market charts on my screen.

@Quroe every morning I tell myself that

>every event has a true, objective probability

>that kernel of truth exists inside my mind

>with the right effort, I can coax it out and liberate it from the cold void of uncertainty

Then, I simply manifest this into existence through my actions. Quite simple.

@bens I tend to coax out about 4 of those per year. Your regimen must be more effective than mine.

@Eliza once you realize that every event is related to every other event, you can simply take the probabilities you know that you know, and work backwards from there to extract all the other probabilities. If you know there is one fish in a well, there must be more.

@bens

>There is noise in the vacuum of what is real and what isn't.

>Find the boundary of that noise.

>Dance on that edge, extracting energy out of the vacuum.

>Attempt to exit your position entirely before the market closes.

Such is the creed of the market making volatility trader.

In other words, I can be pretty sure the market is dancing around the true probability if there is enough action on it. It's just a matter of steering back toward it, plus being over 90% or 95% sure I did not overshoot the true probability with my corrective snap-back.

@Quroe

> The white bird is invisible against the white sky.

> A single feather cascades down from the heavens.

> The hunter looses his arrow into the brightness above.

> A final note and the bird falls to the ground.

> You need not know the position of the prey when it drops signs down below.

@bens [swoons]