The YouTube channel Veritasium made a community post asking people to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar. Traders are encouraged to submit their own guesses via the link.
See the jar here: https://www.veritasiumjellybeans.com
Companion market:
Outcome will be verified via media produced by Veritasium. If this information is not made public before January 1, 2030, then all market answers resolve N/A.
The Market Creator has no relation to Veritasium nor has knowledge of the correct answer at time of market creation. Market Creator may only trade on this market after 1 week of operation or after 10 unique traders have traded, whichever happens first. Market Creator cannot trade between knowing the correct answer and resolving the market. Market Creator or Mods may halt trading if Veritasium announces an imminent release of the correct answer.
1,000People are also trading
Veritasium, if you're listening (and approve), please don't put the answer in the news letter. It would cause bedlam here if some people can see it and others cannot. I also don't think I could manually close the market in time -- all the limit orders would be consumed by news traders instead of actual predictors.
Description updated to allow for a trading halt if, for example, Veritasium stages a live YouTube simulcast release of a video about the "wisdom of the crowd," "jelly beans," or anything else similar.
@strutheo Am I late in some sort of upkeep action? I want to ensure I'm properly tending to this market.
Seeking a counterparty to help me exit from "500-999". I want liquidity in my balance. Does anybody want to take a maximally large NO order at 1% from me? Limit order is up, just trade for NO.
[Offer has been accepted]
@Quroe I counted over 800 beans visible from the video. If there are fewer than 200 additional 'invisible' beans left in that thing I am going to petition the mods to arrest Veritasium and arrange for a Manifold Trial.
@vitamind Yeah, I literally don't know. I have the 2030 deadline in the description as a fail safe. I think we can assume the video idea is abandoned if they don't release it by then.
@vitamind As a benchmark, they asked this community post for a topic in the past, and the associated video released on Mar 28, 2024. I can't easily see what date that community post was made on. If somebody can figure that out, the delta in time between those would probably be a fair expectation here.
@Quroe Looks like the community post was between Black Friday and the Oscars, based on the posts above and below it. So 3-5 months before the video.
For what it's worth, I signed up for their newsletter too. If they announce it there, that's the game.
We're sure a lot of you want to know how many Jellybeans are in that jar, and are probably even more eager to know what it was for. This remains top secret for now, but it has to do with a certain stochastic process...
- newsletter@veritasium.com
Veritasium, if you're listening (and approve), please don't put the answer in the news letter. It would cause bedlam here if some people can see it and others cannot. I also don't think I could manually close the market in time -- all the limit orders would be consumed by news traders instead of actual predictors.