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Trade halt! New video! Reviewing...

False alarm. Reopening.

Seeking a counterparty to help me exit from "500-999". I want liquidity in my balance. Does anybody want to take a maximally large NO order at 1% from me? Limit order is up, just trade for NO.

[Offer has been accepted]

@Quroe I counted over 800 beans visible from the video. If there are fewer than 200 additional 'invisible' beans left in that thing I am going to petition the mods to arrest Veritasium and arrange for a Manifold Trial.

@Eliza We really need to figure out how that system will work.

Description updated to allow for a trading halt if, for example, Veritasium stages a live YouTube simulcast release of a video about the "wisdom of the crowd," "jelly beans," or anything else similar.

I empower Mods with the trade halting authority if I fail to catch it in time. Description has been updated.

@Quroe being lazy here, but when do they annouce it?

@vitamind Could be tomorrow, could be next year.

@vitamind Yeah, I literally don't know. I have the 2030 deadline in the description as a fail safe. I think we can assume the video idea is abandoned if they don't release it by then.

@vitamind As a benchmark, they asked this community post for a topic in the past, and the associated video released on Mar 28, 2024. I can't easily see what date that community post was made on. If somebody can figure that out, the delta in time between those would probably be a fair expectation here.

@Quroe ah, ok - thanks for the response.

@vitamind Glad I could help! 😊

@Quroe Looks like the community post was between Black Friday and the Oscars, based on the posts above and below it. So 3-5 months before the video.

For what it's worth, I signed up for their newsletter too. If they announce it there, that's the game.

We're sure a lot of you want to know how many Jellybeans are in that jar, and are probably even more eager to know what it was for. This remains top secret for now, but it has to do with a certain stochastic process...
- newsletter@veritasium.com

Veritasium, if you're listening (and approve), please don't put the answer in the news letter. It would cause bedlam here if some people can see it and others cannot. I also don't think I could manually close the market in time -- all the limit orders would be consumed by news traders instead of actual predictors.

@traders Have at it, bean counters! 150-bean bucket market is live! Arbitrage away!

My weekly market creation quest refreshed! Does anybody think creating a companion market with higher resolution is a bad idea? (150-bean sized buckets)

I'm on the fence.

It would be fun to see a more spread out normal distribution and give traders a narrower band to express their confidences in. I imagine there would be more back and forth trades on the higher resolution market.

I also know there would be people racking their brains on how to flawlessly mathematically arbitrage the two markets. Flipping back and forth between the two markets doesn't sound like a fun user experience.

Thoughts?

@Quroe my 2 cents is that I'd like a more granular market so I can place an (irrational!) bet on my exact prediction amount. I can't be bothered to do any arbitrage math.

@retr0id Remind me to ask you for more opinions in the future. I do not regret opening this companion market.