Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between June 22, 2025, and December 31, 2029, inclusive, the United States conducts a military attack on Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. The attack must be publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or reported by credible international news organizations. If no such attack occurs within this timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

On June 22, 2025, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, among other nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation in Middle East tensions. (apnews.com) The Fordow facility, located near Qom, is a heavily fortified underground site central to Iran's uranium enrichment program. (en.wikipedia.org) The U.S. strikes aimed to disable Iran's nuclear capabilities, with President Donald Trump declaring the sites "completely and fully obliterated." (reuters.com)

Considerations

Given the recent U.S. attack on Fordow, any subsequent strike before 2030 would likely depend on Iran's actions regarding its nuclear program and the geopolitical climate. The Fordow facility's underground construction makes it a challenging target, requiring significant military resources to effectively neutralize. (en.wikipedia.org) Future U.S. military actions would likely be influenced by Iran's nuclear developments and international diplomatic efforts.