Do you support the mandate of the Framers at the First Manifold Constitutional Convention? (READ DESCRIPTION CAREFULLY)

resolved Jul 1

I Support

I Do Not Support

This poll requires a 3/4 supermajority for the Constitutional Convention to proceed.

Any Constitution generated as a result of the Convention would still need to be ratified by the Manifold user-base.

I would urge you to vote carefully, and view your vote here as part of your sacred civic duty on this site. While ultimately the Manifold government will always be subservient to the site's Community Guidelines, Moderators, and Staff, this poll holds ramifications for the structure, form, and substance of that government. Leaving a power vacuum could allow an oligarchy or tyranny take hold, rather than the futarchic republic that many of the Framers would likely push for.

As described in this market, where context is provided...

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Any Manifold user is welcome to be a "framer" at the (virtual and potentially asynchronous) convention if they meet the following criteria:

Have been a user of the site for at least a year at the time of creation of this market.
Had created at least 10 markets AND/OR have a profit of at least 10k mana at the time of creation of this market.

Additionally, at the start of the convention, the Framers will vote on a proposal to open up the position of Framer to a broader class of newer users, if there is public interest.

Things I envision that this government might be useful for:

Assisting users and moderators, as they see fit, in resolving controversial markets through a vote of the elected representatives.
Providing a mechanism to create interesting and subjective markets that have no explicit criteria but require the consensus or vote of the elected representatives. This might make, for example, asking vibes-based questions about AI capabilities much more robust and less subject to rules-based litigation.
Providing a form of collective financing for efforts in the shared interest of the Manifold community such as bailouts, liquidity provision, and prizes/rewards for interesting market creation of useful comments. This could occur through voluntary taxation or tithing (like a mutual aid fund), for example.

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@traders https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-a-favorable-augury

reposted

10 hours left to vote to support the First Manifold Constitutional Convention.

@bens reminder that you can earn 18 votes for the mandate by resolving https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th to YES! (https://manifold.markets/TheAllMemeingEye/do-you-commit-to-voting-in-favour-o)

reposted

I've basically given up hope of this resolving to a 3/4 supermajority. But I would love to finish with a simple majority, just for optics purposes.

JD Vance, Donald Trump, and Mike Pence are all in support, I wonder how @HillaryClinton would vote

I have tried my best to avoid the user-base falling into the control of a tyrant. The next effort to organize a government may not be so high-minded.

@bens is this the beginning of your manifold supervillain arc?

@BlackCrusade I seek no power

@bens be a lot more fun if you became a super villain, just saying.

@bens I can't respond until https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th resolves

Relevant poll (apologies if not allowed):

@TheAllMemeingEye unfortunately it looks like even this wouldn't save the poll :(

@TheAllMemeingEye Clever.

@bens request for this poll's close date to be extended to 24h after the "unless I am persuaded" market resolves, so I can keep my commitment

reposted

I urge my friends and followers on this website to support the mandate of the first Manifold constitutional convention. Remember, any constitution would have to be ratified by the user-base anyway!

Part of me really wants to see a Manifold trial by jury for a controversial market resolution. Or, at the very least, a debate run like a trial with a prediction market about how the debate will resolve.

This also doesn't seem to be the final stop for this train. This seems to just be the opener for the conversation. I'm in the camp of, "Alright, let's talk. Let's have a convention and see what happens."

I do not support, because of the high bar to be a framer. Since the proposed constitution would still need to be ratified, there is no need to have any bar on who can be a framer.

Unlikely to pass resolution. Hoping for a turnaround.

reposted

Seems like it would be really useful to have a collective of Manifold users with a mandate to help with subjective resolutions and to organise various other things to help the community. Whether you call it a "government" or not is a matter of taste, but the core idea seems like a really good one. Vote yes! (I have no financial stake in the outcome.)

https://manifold.markets/100Anonymous/separate-poll-for-partial-mandate-b

Related, one, but constitution is optional

Isn’t this biased? People who are interested in the other market are more likely to vote on this poll.

@hruss what do you mean by "biased"? This is a poll.

@bens the sample isn’t representative

@hruss ultimately, can't this be said of all elections?

@hruss it is, people with no knowledge of this should be less likely to vote

@bens no, to be comparable to other elections it would have to be promoted on the app by the developers, so that every user sees it. Elections are generally announced in advance, not in a comment section.

@hruss a user who does not have any knowledge of thus, why would they bother even if you showed them prominenetly? Besides, people without knowledge will either be curious and explore anyway, even if it isn't so prominent, and if it is, users who don't care will still not care.

@100Anonymous I imagine that there is a significant portion of people from the market who will not know about this poll’s existence, who are interested

@hruss why not ping @traders on the

big market?

@100Anonymous I did!

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