I failed to receive the mandate of the people to form a Manifold government.

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

I sought a 3/4 supermajority to provide a mandate to establish a constitutional convention and bring a Republic to the people. Ultimately, I didn't even get a simple majority, and lost the vote 41-44.

However, there were several circumstances that make me suspect that the will of the people yearns for the essential reforms I strive to provide.

• A voting block of 18 people, which pledged their vote should I resolve this market YES, was unable to do so because of the timing of the two markets. That would have made the outcome 59-44 (57%) which, were it an American federal election, would have been an electoral landslide not seen for decades.

• The most engaged and meritorious users were heavily in support. I count 9(!) admins and moderators (including 1 founder) in support, and only 1 against!

• The most profitable users (indeed, in many ways, Manifold should strive to operate as a futarchy) were all in support.

• Many users seemed to only vote because of their stake in the original market, a regrettable motivation that runs contrary

Thus, when the lots of the people fail to provide me guidance, I must turn to the auspices.

Over this month, I will do the following.

• Research the ancient practice of augury.

• Take my auspices to determine a course of action that will be best for Manifold.

If I receive a favorable augury, I will take that as a sign that the reforms I seek to bring to the userbase of Manifold are just and merited.

If I receive an unfavorable augury, I will hold my tongue and step aside for the time being.

This market may be relevant for you to understand what options are available to me: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-befriend-the-neighborhood-cr

More details to come, I will provide the insights I learn about augury along the way, and keep everyone abreast of what I see in the skies. (Subjective resolution, obviously)

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a comment, the creator acknowledged that their approach is based on historical auguries, which were often inconvenient for the performer. This implies a genuine possibility of an unfavorable (NO) resolution, even if it goes against the creator's personal desires.