I failed to receive the mandate of the people to form a Manifold government.
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
I sought a 3/4 supermajority to provide a mandate to establish a constitutional convention and bring a Republic to the people. Ultimately, I didn't even get a simple majority, and lost the vote 41-44.
However, there were several circumstances that make me suspect that the will of the people yearns for the essential reforms I strive to provide.
A voting block of 18 people, which pledged their vote should I resolve this market YES, was unable to do so because of the timing of the two markets. That would have made the outcome 59-44 (57%) which, were it an American federal election, would have been an electoral landslide not seen for decades.
The most engaged and meritorious users were heavily in support. I count 9(!) admins and moderators (including 1 founder) in support, and only 1 against!
The most profitable users (indeed, in many ways, Manifold should strive to operate as a futarchy) were all in support.
Many users seemed to only vote because of their stake in the original market, a regrettable motivation that runs contrary
Thus, when the lots of the people fail to provide me guidance, I must turn to the auspices.
Over this month, I will do the following.
Research the ancient practice of augury.
Take my auspices to determine a course of action that will be best for Manifold.
If I receive a favorable augury, I will take that as a sign that the reforms I seek to bring to the userbase of Manifold are just and merited.
If I receive an unfavorable augury, I will hold my tongue and step aside for the time being.
This market may be relevant for you to understand what options are available to me: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-befriend-the-neighborhood-cr
More details to come, I will provide the insights I learn about augury along the way, and keep everyone abreast of what I see in the skies. (Subjective resolution, obviously)
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a comment, the creator acknowledged that their approach is based on historical auguries, which were often inconvenient for the performer. This implies a genuine possibility of an unfavorable (NO) resolution, even if it goes against the creator's personal desires.
Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the condition for a favorable augury based on feeding crows:
The market will resolve YES if exactly 7 crows come to feed at once.
Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added a new condition for a favorable augury (YES). The market will also resolve YES if a goldfinch lands on their balcony.
Update 2025-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has identified a foul augury, which is a condition for an unfavorable outcome (NO resolution):
A murmuration of starlings.
1,000
I’ve been feeding crows from the parking structure across the street about every other day.
According to my readings, 7 is a very favorable number.
I think if I were to feed the crows and 7 crows came to feed at once (no more, and no less), that would be a favorable augury.
The last time I fed them, 1 bird came. I believe the most I’ve gotten is 11, if I recall correctly.
I will be honest about this, and will try to photograph if possible, but it can be challenging to get all the crows in one shot.
I have always been fascinated with augury myself and I think it is a most excellent practice that should be more popular. There is nothing better when on a walking trip or excursion than to spot an eagle and to feel like you have been blessed by the gods.
Whenever I see one (or more) I always take it as a favourable sign, the more eagles spotted the more auspicuous.
I'm lucky to live in a place where they are not very rare, in a couple of lucky occasions I have spotted white-bellied eagles right in the city over Sydney harbour, I was very excited!
I'm in! LFG @bens.
Long live KRANTZ ((The abstract object, not myself)although I do hope I live long and well).
I have been soundly confused by all of this. It seems to me that what Manifold wants is not a democratic republic, but rather a monarchical dictatorship. I think you could try doing all of this over again and do something like "I have the mandate of the gods, you are with me or you are my enemy"
If no one is going to support a Manifold government of, by, and for the Manifolders, then why not appease the Manifolders and simply give them the alternative: A dictatorship, a monarchy, and/or an oligarchy? Give oligarchs/elites special favors, hold "elections" that you always win, stage a coup or two, the whole shabang.
@GleamingRhino People who have proven their expertise in a field and attempt participate in the management or governance of said field is not a bad thing is it? Also, anyone could vote in any direction- it's not like there was a predetermined list of elites that get special favors. There was a requirement to have some degree of history on the site and that doesn't sound like favoritism to me, it sounds like an attempt to ensure that people who- to some extent- know what they're doing are involved. Help me understand.
@crowlsyong not quite what I was trying to convey, I’ll do my best to clarify:
What users, or at least me want to avoid is insider power user cabal drama shenanigans. Especially at the expense of the site experience for more low key users. This is what the proposal looked like, and why it got voted down. Black Crusade summed up my thoughts pretty well: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p#8p79wm9841p
Saying that the power users who already wanted to join the cabal think it is a good idea is not a terribly convincing argument. It’s missing the point.
@GleamingRhino "insider power user cabal drama shenanigans" haha that can indeed be a problem. I think I did miss the point, thanks for claryfing. And I think you're right that @BlackCrusade summed it up well, I appreciate the link to his comment🙏
So anywayssss uhh. *kicks the dirt while looking at shoes
...
Do you want to start a dictatorship with me? You could be my puppet state and I fund you lots of mana to carry out proxy wa- i mean proxy betting. Maybe just a little bit dictatorship? 🤏🤠🫴
@bens it wouldn't matter who it was, I'm making this comment based on my opinion of auguries (which happens to be the same opinion I hold about horoscopes and cold fortune telling)
@BlackCrusade to be fair, from what I understand of Roman auguries, that was sometimes the case, but very much not the norm. Often the auguries were quite inconveniencing for those who performed them, sometimes leading to military disasters even!