Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
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150
Dec 31
53%
chance

This is effectively like an option, a way to obtain leverage.

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at any point before the end of 2024?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BenjaminIkuta that would mean this is a 'one touch' and already triggered, since the reference contract is currently trading at 15%

@AlexanderLeCampbell By "reach 10%" I mean "decline to reach 10%", not "increase to reach 10%", since it was already above 10% when I made the market.

@BenjaminIkuta That's not the usual understanding of "reach", might want to change the title to "decline"

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