Turkey demands Sweden silence journalists, shut down news outlet to secure NATO bid approval

https://nordicmonitor.com/2023/11/turkey-demands-sweden-silence-journalists-shut-down-news-outlet-to-secure-nato-bid-approval/

It’s not clear to me why this is so much lower than the “before 2024” markets. Is there another NATO meeting in December that I am unaware of?

@JimAusman This market is correctly priced, the “before 2024” one is just overpriced by @BTE that has a lot of sunk cost in it.

YES is a steal at 10%.

https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/11/15/hungary-not-ready-ratify-swedens-nato-application/ It increasingly looks like Hungary is in fact going to be last.

Considering a) that markets for Sweden joining NATO by 2024 are trading at around 70%, b) that there are important NATO meetings at the end of November, c) that Turkey is likely to vote on Thursday and ratify soon after, and d) that Hungary has signaled they won't be the last man standing and that Orban knows he's treading on this ice as it is in Europe, gonna agree with @BTE that this market seems a bit underpriced to me 🤷‍♂️. made a more specific market for anyone with better insights though:

@such There are some limit orders at 30-35% for you if you’re interested.

Sweden will be allowed accession to NATO. However, it will not be before the end of November. Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO in May of 2022. While Finland was able to join in April of this year, Sweden’s accession has been delayed by Turkey before finally signing the Protocol on Sweden's NATO Accession at the end of October. The Hungarian government had previously stated that it wouldn’t be the last NATO ally to ratify Sweden’s accession. However, they haven’t agreed on Sweden’s membership yet and have been asked to do so again recently. The members of the Hungarian Parliament now have to make the decision and they don’t seem to be in a hurry to do so in regards to Sweden's hostile attitude towards Budapest and criticism of their prime minister Orban.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/ungern-inte-redo-att-ratificera-sveriges-natoansokan--6ezf4z

@SirCryptomind It's so funny. https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-sweden-join-nato-by-the-end-of-b471ebe10a1d#dgprGaswl3f2n4wUga8L

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/sweden-still-sees-hungary-ratifying-its-nato-bid-before-turkey

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/turkeys-parliament-debate-swedens-nato-bid-erdogan-eyes-biden-invite erdogan wants to visit the White House.

Turkey's parliament has already announced they will vote in committee on this Thursday, leaving just two more steps, a vote of the full assembly and Erdogan's signature. It appears the goal is to approve Sweden in time for them to participate in the NATO meetings at the end of the month.

@BTE What about Hungary?

@NicoDelon See my comment below. Orban has said Hungary won't be last country to ratify. They could literally vote any day, basically whenever he tells them to.

@BTE But I still don’t understand. They haven’t ratified. When will they do it?

@NicoDelon Sometime before the end of next week I suspect.

@BTE Hum. Would be reassuring to have an announcement from them too.

@NicoDelon the Hungarian parliament has its agenda online. The Swedish accession is the second item, currently no date has been set.

Next (regular) sessions are scheduled for next week.

https://www.parlament.hu/web/guest/nyitolap?p_p_id=hu_parlament_cms_pair_portlet_PairProxy_INSTANCE_ZMat2CAJFnIW&p_p_lifecycle=1&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_auth=4TCrmIZz&_hu_parlament_cms_pair_portlet_PairProxy_INSTANCE_ZMat2CAJFnIW_pairAction=%2Finternet%2Fcplsql%2Fogy_tnrend_nyilv.ulesterv_ny%3FP_CKL%3D42%26P_ULES%3D104%2F5

@LasseRasinen Thanks.

https://www.thelocal.se/20231114/turkey-moves-closer-to-ratification-of-swedish-nato-application

"Hungary and Turkey are the only Nato countries left which need to approve Sweden’s application, and Hungarian president Viktor Orbán has pledged previously that his country will not be the last to ratify.

If Turkey ratifies next week and Orbán keeps his promise, Swedish foreign minister Tobias Billström would be able to participate in Nato’s next meeting in Brussels on November 28th as a full member."

https://www.voanews.com/a/turkish-lawmakers-delay-vote-on-sweden-nato-membership/7288725.html

Turkish Lawmakers Delay Vote on Sweden’s NATO Membership

Sweden's bid to join NATO is heading for a delay as Turkey's parliament starts a new session this Sunday without the NATO enlargement vote on the agenda. As Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul, delaying a vote on Sweden's NATO membership puts Turkey on a collision course with the U.S.

Hmm.

Turkey is saying their backing is conditional on the US selling them F-16s.

Turkey will back Sweden's NATO bid if U.S. keeps promise on F-16 sale - Erdogan

Turkey's parliament will keep its promise to ratify Sweden's NATO bid if U.S. President Joe Biden's administration paves the way for F-16 jet sales to Ankara, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday, according to Turkish media.

But F-16's in Turkey by EOY has a lower market probability than Sweden's NATO membership by end of Nov:

https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-taunts-sweden-over-stalled-nato-bid/

Hungary taunts Sweden over stalled NATO bid

Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó writes letter baiting his Swedish counterpart.