Will Russia lose any part of Outer Manchuria by 2035?
10
190Ṁ129
2035
20%
chance

like, if a neighbor like China takes it or it becomes a new country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria

Ukraine-Russia war
Russia
China
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i like how the image here is many, many different countries, none of which are anywhere near outer manchuria

Vaguely similarly market:

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/by-2050-will-any-territory-that-was

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