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MANIFOLD
Will my Ukrainian friend die in the war in Ukraine?
12
Ṁ210Ṁ293
Dec 31
16%
chance

Will my Ukrainian friend die in the war in Ukraine?

He recently joined an Azov artillery unit.

Close will be extended as needed.

Market context
Wars
Ukraine-Russia war
Ukraine
Benjamin's personal
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He's still doing well

did he

@jacksonpolack not so far

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/if-my-ukrainian-artillery-friend-di

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/if-my-ancap-friend-goes-to-fight-in

Odds of a soldier dying are less than 1 in 3, I think. Absent further information I’m going to bet “no” and hope to win :)

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