Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if either Corning or Murata produces ceramic separators that are incorporated into a sample (or production) cell at any point during 2026. Resolution will be based on official announcements from QuantumScape, Corning, Murata, or their partners confirming that separators manufactured by either company have been integrated into a cell for testing or production purposes. The market resolves NO if no such confirmation is made by December 31, 2026.

Background

QuantumScape has inked agreements with Murata Manufacturing and Corning to develop high-volume ceramic separator production—a critical component of its solid-state design. The companies have been exploring a potential collaboration toward the high-volume production of ceramic films since February 2025.

Considerations

QuantumScape currently reports zero revenue, reflecting its pre-commercialization status. The partnerships are still in the development phase, with no confirmed production timelines from either Corning or Murata. Success depends on either companies validating that their manufacturing processes can meet QuantumScape's technical requirements for separator quality and consistency.