Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the highest number of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, according to official data released by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

• First Round Date: October 4, 2026.

• Runoff Clarification: The market resolves based solely on the results of the first round. Even if no candidate achieves the absolute majority (>50%) required to win the presidency outright (thereby triggering a runoff on October 25, 2026), the candidate with the most valid votes in the first round will be declared the winner.

• Unlisted Winner: Because the options list is locked, if a candidate not listed among the choices wins the first round, this market will resolve to N/A.

• Source of Truth: Official results published on the TSE Resultados Portal or confirmed via major Brazilian news coverage such as G1 Eleições.

Background

The first round of the 2026 Brazilian general election takes place on October 4, 2026. The primary contenders are incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Under Brazil's election system, if no presidential candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, a runoff is held on October 25, 2026. This market tracks only the plurality winner of the first round.