Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially certified as the winner of the next Venezuelan presidential election.

• Electoral Authority: Resolution will be based on the official declaration by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE), or any successor transitional electoral body mutually agreed upon by the negotiating government and opposition factions.

• Verifiable Sources: Results will be verified via the official portal of the CNE, the official state gazette (Gaceta Oficial), or widespread consensus among reputable international press agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

• Disputed Results: If the official body declares a winner, the market will resolve to that individual, even if the results are contested internationally, unless the official declaration is formally nullified or reversed by Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) or a successor supreme judicial authority within 30 days of the vote.

• De Facto Executive Power: In the event of parallel claims to the presidency with no legal consensus, the market will remain open until a single individual exercises undisputed de facto executive control over the state apparatus in Caracas, or resolve N/A if the dispute remains entirely unresolved 12 months after the election.

• Expiration Date: If no presidential election is held by December 31, 2028, this market will resolve N/A.

Background

Following the capture and extradition of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January 2026 (Operation Absolute Resolve), Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of Acting President. In September 2026, Acting President Rodríguez addressed the UN General Assembly and committed to holding elections as part of a transition to "full democracy".

However, political analysts and negotiating sources indicate that the election is unlikely to occur before late 2027 or 2028. This delay is due to the complex institutional reforms required to update voter rolls and replace the highly politicized 32 Supreme Court judges and 5 CNE directors before a credible vote can take place. Potential contenders include figures from the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) as well as opposition leaders from the Unitary Platform (PUD).