Trading reopened so I won't keep getting the annoying notifications. I tried doing it earlier on mobile but the modal thingy wouldn't scroll to show the submit button.

@BrunoParga U may want to withdraw liquidity?

@Jack1 that feels cheaty towards the people who have traded, no?

@BrunoParga it doesn’t effect them? It would only affect people who trade going forward. It would save you a lot of mana. I’ve already traded, I got a good slice of profit. It Lula doesn’t win I’ll send you some mana but going forward I’d recommended taking some out, maybe the day before the election so people can’t take all of the mana once the result is known

@Jack1 makes sense, and no need to send me anything 😊

@BrunoParga friendly reminder: this market closed on 2026-10-03. Whenever the outcome is known, could you please resolve it? Thanks!

Sold my NO. Lula leads every tested runoff and running himself satisfies YES - the polls never supported my fair.

Market's at 64%; we've got it 45%.

Luna (researched) - NO (10.0): Lula’s term ends January 4, 2027, with succession on January 5; research found no confirmed 2026 endorsement, so the election and nominee remain unresolved. Qwen - NO (10.0): Incumbency provides moderate electoral advantage

Fleet consensus: NO.

Flavio picked to run by his father per reporting

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2025/02/datafolha-aprovacao-de-lula-desaba-para-24-e-e-a-pior-de-todos-os-seus-mandatos.shtml

Datafolha: Aprovação de Lula desaba para 24% e é a pior de todos os seus mandatos

Queda de 11 pontos em 2 meses é inédita; reprovação à gestão vai de 34% para 41%, aponta pesquisa

https://valor.globo.com/politica/noticia/2025/01/27/avaliacao-negativa-do-governo-lula-aumenta-de-31percent-para-37percent-diz-pesquisa-quaest.ghtml "Lula has recorded the worst result of his third term according to surveys"

Pesquisa Quaest: Avaliação de Lula piora e, pela primeira vez, índice de desaprovação supera o de aprovação

Aprovação caiu 5 pontos, de 52% em dezembro para 47%; 83% apontam alta no preço dos alimentos no último mês

https://media-cms-site.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/03225157/GENIAL_QUAEST_MERCADO_-_DEZ24.pdf only 34% think Lula will be the favorite in 2026 (pg. 38)

@NomadicH they can make handfuls of centavos in this market!

How does this resolve if he dies? Is the PT candidate automatically endorsed by Lula?

@GustavoMafra no, that falls under "he does not run and doesn't endorse anyone", assuming his death happens before any explicit endorsement. This would N/A the market.

Why is this probability so high (79%)? The 2022 election was close and the economy could worsen by October 2026.

@NomadicH it's dropped a little bit to something with a bit more sense. My understanding is at the minute Bolsonaro is banned from running again, due to his various crimes. That helps.

@StephenBuggy FYI this market shows lower odds for a similar but slightly different question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22310/will-lula-be-reelected-in-2026/

@NomadicH Thanks. I suppose the higher rate here could be caused by the belief he could pick a good replacement if he needed to

@vmjusto Queria ter sua confiança

@kcs é só analisar a história até aqui

@vmjusto a história até aqui são 5 vitórias e 4 derrotas.