(English below)
Este mercado resolve SIM se Lula, ou seu indicado nas eleições de 2026, for Presidente do Brasil na data de fechamento do mercado. Se Lula ou seu indicado perder as eleições, o mercado resolve NÃO, e se Lula não for candidato e não indicar ninguém, o mercado resolve como N/A. Também resolve como N/A se não houver eleições.
Resolve as YES if either Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or the candidate he endorses in the 2026 election is President of Brazil at the closing date. If Lula runs and loses, or his endorsee loses, resolve as NO. If Lula does not run and does not endorse anyone, resolve as N/A. Also resolve N/A if there are no elections.
1,000
3.00https://media-cms-site.genialinvestimentos.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/03225157/GENIAL_QUAEST_MERCADO_-_DEZ24.pdf only 34% think Lula will be the favorite in 2026 (pg. 38)
@GustavoMafra no, that falls under "he does not run and doesn't endorse anyone", assuming his death happens before any explicit endorsement. This would N/A the market.
Why is this probability so high (79%)? The 2022 election was close and the economy could worsen by October 2026.
@NomadicH it's dropped a little bit to something with a bit more sense. My understanding is at the minute Bolsonaro is banned from running again, due to his various crimes. That helps.
@StephenBuggy FYI this market shows lower odds for a similar but slightly different question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22310/will-lula-be-reelected-in-2026/
@NomadicH Thanks. I suppose the higher rate here could be caused by the belief he could pick a good replacement if he needed to