Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if China launches a military invasion of Taiwan before July 1, 2025. An invasion is defined as a significant deployment of Chinese military forces onto Taiwanese territory with the intent to seize control. This includes mainland Taiwan and its directly controlled islands.

The market resolves to NO if no such invasion occurs before July 1, 2025

Background

• Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a self-governing island that China considers a breakaway province under its "One China" policy

• China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control

• The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been instructed by President Xi Jinping to be ready for a potential Taiwan invasion by 2027

• China has increased "gray-zone" tactics against Taiwan, including military overflights, naval exercises, and cyberattacks

Considerations

• A full-scale invasion would require the largest amphibious assault in modern history, presenting significant logistical challenges for the PLA

• U.S. military officials have suggested China could be ready to invade as early as 2025, though these are assessments of capability rather than intent

• International factors, including potential U.S. military intervention and economic sanctions, serve as significant deterrents

• China may continue to use military posturing and diplomatic pressure rather than launching a full invasion