At what market cap will Mos exit?

Ṁ1.2kṀ593

resolved Jun 5

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This market resolves to the market cap of Mos (mos.com) at the end of the first day of public trading. If Mos is acquired, the market resolves to the publicly reported acquisition price or merger value at the day the merger/acquisition is announced, including both cash and stock.

If the company shuts down, this market resolves to 0.

If Mos has not had an exit by the end of the 2020s, this market resolves to N/A.

Market context

Venture Capital

Private Markets

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I'm not sure I understand Manifold's payout rules for a market like this. If I think there is a 1% chance of a $1M exit and a 99% chance of a $0 exit, is it positive-expectation for me to bet HIGHER, LOWER, or neither?

predictedLOWER

@AndrewHyer yeah, i'm not sure, there should be a simulator of some kind

@AndrewHyer EV for HIGHER at current marginal rate would be -0.9735 (265%*1%-1), and for LOWER would be 0.584 (160%*99%-1). So you LOWER has positive EV, given those probabilities.

It's fixed payout, so it doesn't matter if you expect it to end at $1M or $1B with 1% chance.