There are two Canada election debates currently planned, a French debate on April 16th, 6:00 PM EST and an English debate on April 17th, 7:00 PM EST.
This market resolves based on the change of the displayed price of Mark Carney between April 15th, Noon EST and April 18th, Noon EST on the Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada/will-pierre-poilievre-be-the-next-canadian-prime-minister?tid=1743818934282
If his probability increases by 2% or more, resolves Yes.
If his probability decreases by 2% or more, resolves No.
If his probability change is within +-1%, resolves 50/50.
Weird spikes right on the times for checking the relative price change may be ignored if a majority of Manifold users vote to do so on a poll.
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@bagelfan not really important but it's probably better to change the title to what the description says for historical reasons, like "Will Carney increase by 2 points on Polymarket a day after the debate?" Because the funny thing is is that this was resolved prior to any post-debate polls being released lol (except Abacus' snap poll, which showed Poilievre earning more people's votes and having a higher support among those who watched the full debate).
The first post-debate poll has been released and it shows Conservatives in the lead:
If you want to say that the market was supposed to predict who won the debate without viewing a poll, that's a good idea too but the reality is that merely getting a drawn result in the debate means an increase in odds because of time decay as we're so close to the election (read more of my reasoning below). Anyways up to you just wanted to share my opinion
Early polling shows a Carney slightly ahead https://abacusdata.ca/2025-federal-election-debate-reaction-flash-poll/
@Gabrielle Carney increase in odds after the debate doesn't actually indicate that he won, it indicates that the debate didn't change many people's minds and therefore the current polling will remain steady, and therefore as we approach the election date it will approach 100% odds, especially as the last remaining "big change" event (the debate) has now passed without a big change.
The Abacus poll actually shows a Poilievre win. Favorability was better for Carney (positive minus negative), but as for who earned their vote, Poilievre leads at 43% to Carney's 40%. And even more damning for Carney supporters, of those who watched the entire debate, 47% favored Poilievre while 37% favored Carney. Carney relies on low information voters who couldn't watch the entire debate, and therefore his positive rating is actually irrespective of his debate performance, meaning the title unfortunately doesn't match the description in this case.
Regardless, Pierre will turn this ship around, he will continue to inform voters of the dangers of continuing down this dark Liberal path for any longer
@bens I should have bought way more YES shares, but I assumed everyone knew something I didn't about polymarket dynamics
@bens the debate is for Carney to lose. He's not that strong of a debater. And polymarket is a bit conservative piled. Still likely this resolves 50/50 imo
@ChadCotty the real reason I bet is because Carney went down in his odds to 73 for a few hours. Probably just noise though.
@evan We are using the displayed probability, which is rounded to the nearest integer unless very close to extremes.
@jgyou It was pushed forward by two hours, since it was only moved by a little bit I'll keep the same times for comparing the market prices
