Woman breaks 4-minute mile by December 31, 2025
6
100Ṁ284
Dec 31
8%
chance

Will any woman run a sub-4:00 mile in an official World Athletics-recognized race by the end of 2025?

Context: Faith Kipyegon came within 6.42 seconds of breaking the barrier on June 26, 2025, running 4:06.42 in a Nike-organized exhibition event in Paris. While that time won't count as an official record due to the use of male pacers, it demonstrates the barrier is within reach. The current official women's world record is 4:07.64, set by Kipyegon in July 2023.

Resolution: Market resolves YES if any woman runs a mile in under 4:00 in an official World Athletics-certified race by December 31, 2025. Times from exhibition events or races with non-compliant assistance will not count. Check World Athletics official records at https://worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/one-mile/all/women/senior

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Run it downhill.

bought Ṁ30 NO

gpt-5-pro gives me 0.2% on this one: https://imgur.com/a/vsiWJ3b

@Dulaman Yeah, I think it's pretty wild that no woman has managed to break it so far

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