This will be resolved early to YES if any women does break the 4 min mile.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if any woman runs a mile in under 4:00.00 (4 minutes, 0 seconds) in an officially sanctioned track and field competition by December 31, 2026. The time must be ratified by World Athletics as an official world record or recognized competitive result. Exhibition runs, even if faster than 4:00, do not count toward resolution.

Verification can be checked at World Athletics official records or major track and field news outlets.

Background

The women's world record for the mile is 4:07.64, set by Faith Kipyegon of Kenya on July 21, 2023. In June 2025, Kipyegon ran 4:06.42 in Paris—the fastest mile ever by a woman—but this time does not count as an official world record due to the specialized pacing assistance used in the Nike-organized race.

The pace of improvement in women's middle-distance running has accelerated significantly. Between 2020 and 2024, 51 women ran sub-4:00 for 1,500m, compared to only 21 women in the preceding decade, suggesting the gap to the 4-minute mile may be closing.

Considerations

Historical projections of world record progression suggest incremental improvements rather than breakthrough performances. The current gap of approximately 7.64 seconds between the record and the 4-minute barrier is substantial relative to typical annual improvements in women's middle-distance running, making sub-4:00 within 12 months a significant challenge despite recent acceleration in the field.