Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Iran conducts at least one direct military strike against a U.S. military base between September 12, 2026, and November 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Definition of "Direct Military Strike": The attack must involve offensive military action (e.g., missiles, drones, artillery, or naval/ground forces) directly launched or commanded by official Iranian state forces (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Islamic Republic of Iran Army).

• Proxy Attacks: Attacks conducted solely by regional proxy groups (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah, or the Islamic Resistance in Iraq) will NOT count for a YES resolution unless official U.S. government/military statements or major credible news outlets directly attribute the launch or command of the specific attack to Iranian state forces.

• Definition of "U.S. Military Base": Any active military facility, airfield, outpost, or base officially hosting or operated by U.S. armed forces (e.g., facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, or Syria).

• Timeframe and Baseline: This market is strictly forward-looking. The strike must occur on or after September 12, 2026, and before November 1, 2026. Strikes that occurred prior to September 12, 2026—including the September 8–9, 2026 ballistic missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan—do not count toward resolving this market.

• Sources: Resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or reporting from highly reputable international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, or The Wall Street Journal).

Background

The U.S. and Iran have been locked in an active regional conflict. In early September 2026, tensions escalated further when U.S. forces destroyed several Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on U.S. warships. In retaliation on September 8–9, 2026, the IRGC launched a barrage of ballistic missiles containing cluster munitions targeting the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, resulting in damage to several U.S. military aircraft.

This market tracks whether the conflict will see further direct Iranian state strikes on U.S. military bases in the region before the end of October 2026.

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