Background

The Liberal-National Coalition was dissolved from 22 January to 8 February of 2026. Two non-partisan pollsters, Newspoll and Roy Morgan, have published public polls of Australian federal voting intentions which they conducted entirely during that time period. In Newspoll, the Liberal and National parties combined for 18% of the primary vote. Roy Morgan conducted two polls during the time period; in the later one, the parties got 22.5%. This averages to 20.25%.

Since then, two key events happened in quick succession that could change the fortunes of the Coalition parties: the Coalition has been re-formed, and Angus Taylor has replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader through a spill motion.

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if, in the first Newspoll and Roy Morgan polls conducted entirely during or after 13 February 2026 (the day Angus Taylor became leader), the combined primary vote for the Liberal and National parties averages higher than 20.25%. The market resolves NO if the combined primary vote remains at or below 20.25%.

Polling numbers for any parties which are affiliated with either or both the Liberal Party or National Party will be counted towards this number, regardless of whether they are in coalition or whether they are combined in the poll results.

Close date is indicative only.

I will not bet in this market.