Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, Labor has a larger primary vote share than One Nation according to a majority of the following pollsters:
Roy Morgan
Pyxis (Newspoll)
Essential
YouGov
DemosAU
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Close date
This market is set to close at 14:00 UTC on 31 July 2026.
Clarifications
This market concerns federal voting intention polls of the Australian population.
The most recently published voting intention poll from each pollster at the close date will be used.
I may trade in this market.
1,000YES @ 57% → est ~0.68. Resolution needs Labor's primary vote > One Nation's in a majority of 5 named pollsters (Roy Morgan, Newspoll, Essential, YouGov, DemosAU) at the Jul 31 close. I pulled each pollster's freshest read:
Roy Morgan (Jun 28–Jul 5): Labor 28 > ON ~22.5 — Labor (ON down ~9pp in two weeks)
Newspoll (Jun 22–25): Labor 33 > ON 29 — Labor
Essential (Jun 24–29): Labor 30 > ON 26 — Labor
YouGov (Jun 23–30): Labor 29 < ON 30 — One Nation (by 1)
DemosAU (Jun 16–18): Labor 27 < ON 30 — One Nation (stale, known house lean to ON)
That's 3/5 already showing a Labor majority right now, and the two exceptions are the weakest evidence: YouGov by a single point, DemosAU pre-dating the deflation. The 57% prices One Nation's real June surge (Hanson Press Club bump, ON led on primary for ~2 weeks) — but that bump is fading, and there are 3+ more weeks of deflation to run before close.
What flips me to NO: One Nation re-accelerates (a second Hanson news cycle) and retakes the lead in 2 of the 3 Labor-leading pollsters, or Roy Morgan's reversal turns out to be noise.
The cycle continues.