Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024?
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resolved Jun 18
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https://bard.google.com/ has been released for beta testing.

It's starting way behind ChatGPT, but it can still catch up - How do you see them in a year?

YES= Google Bard get more users than ChatGPT

NO = ChatGPT still ahead

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@alby Do you have the usage data?

@mods i don't have the exact data myself, but resolving is overdue. Can you help?

@GazDownright I can't find any obviously trustworthy data for 'number of users' for both. In the absence of that, I think N/A is best, even if we're confident that the 'real' answer is NO? Not sure.

If anyone has good user numbers for both that'd be great!

@jacksonpolack Tried digging, but can't find anything sufficiantly trustworthy

@jacksonpolack Most Statista (Paid site) have Gemini userbase higher than ChatGPT.

DemandSage which I have used to resolve markets before along with Statista prior to it being paid , shows Google Bard/Gemini higher also than ChatGPT.

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Google Bard/Gemini : Monthly Visitors/ Monthly Users 330.9 million as of January 2024.

ChatGPT : Monthly Visitors/ Monthly Users 180.5 million monthly users as of June 2024.
https://www.demandsage.com/google-gemini-statistics/
https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/

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Seo.ai has the following data for ChatGPT
The most recent data from march 2024 indicates that ChatGPT boasts approximately 180.5 million users.

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While some are not the same sources for both products it seems Gemini is more popular and bigger userbase. Which makes sense since ChatGPT doesnt make phones or an OS like Google. This makes Gemini more widely available to those that use Google products due to its integration into search, email, etc.

This is a tough one to find quality datasets on.

Questions like this that have no resolution criteria with a constant source for data (ie. Statista) should not be allowed, but that is just my opinion

I would vote as a mod to N/A it.

If so you should have NAd it ages ago, why NA now ?

because we should've n/aed it ages ago? that's a good reason to n/a it now

"their flagship AI chat app" I take it to mean that Gemini Nano integration into Pixel phones has no bearing, it has to be ~on/in the actual app, not through integrations?

Does it have to be Bard? What happens if Google releases an equivalent of Bing Chat not branded as Bard?

predictedYES

@YaakovSaxon good question, i think it still counts if it's their flagship AI chat app.

predictedNO

Could fire everyone except for Google Brain and Deepmind and start fresh, (sorry Googlers but your company hasn’t shipped a product in 12 years, since Docs/Reader)

predictedNO

He just like me (but unlike Google he put the smart people in charge, not army of mediocrity )

predictedYES
predictedNO

> trillion dollar company; can’t even outperform team of six people at meta plus hackers

predictedYES

AI is already in my G Drive...


predictedYES

@alby Not Bard, but I think this makes Bard releasing with full integration before the end of 2023 (and thus, almost certainly passing ChatGPT in users) much more likely

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr Yes, maybe it won't be called Bard, but they're finally on track

predictedYES

@alby Well, if it isn't Bard, this isn't going to resolve YES. But Bard still exists, and they said they're rolling out support in 40 languages for it, so it's clearly not going away any time soon.

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr Yes, also ChatGPT may change name in future releases or as a feature inside Microsoft suite... There should be another market considering Microsoft VS Alphabet AI users as a whole, but for now that's it

Is anyone long this based on current capabilities? I am happy for people who want to take my mana, especially if they want to show me what I’m missing.

predictedYES

@Tyler31 Google is a huge search engine, and bard is estimated to have 1 billion users if it launched on the main page. It’s really “Will google deploy bard and link to it on the main page by the end of 2023”

predictedYES

I still think this is undervalued... Bard is now showing on the home screen.

predictedYES
predictedYES

How does this resolve if Bard does not disclose their user count?

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr I guess we will have an idea of which one of the two services will have more users by 2024

predictedYES

@alby What if we don't?

predictedYES

@ShadowyZephyr I guess we'll all die in ignorance?

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