Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024?
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Mar 31
7%
chance

https://bard.google.com/ has been released for beta testing.

It's starting way behind ChatGPT, but it can still catch up - How do you see them in a year?

YES= Google Bard get more users than ChatGPT

NO = ChatGPT still ahead

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bought Ṁ500 of NO

"their flagship AI chat app" I take it to mean that Gemini Nano integration into Pixel phones has no bearing, it has to be ~on/in the actual app, not through integrations?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Does it have to be Bard? What happens if Google releases an equivalent of Bing Chat not branded as Bard?

predicts YES

@YaakovSaxon good question, i think it still counts if it's their flagship AI chat app.

predicts NO

Could fire everyone except for Google Brain and Deepmind and start fresh, (sorry Googlers but your company hasn’t shipped a product in 12 years, since Docs/Reader)

predicts NO

He just like me (but unlike Google he put the smart people in charge, not army of mediocrity )

predicts YES
predicts NO

> trillion dollar company; can’t even outperform team of six people at meta plus hackers

predicts YES

AI is already in my G Drive...


predicts YES

@alby Not Bard, but I think this makes Bard releasing with full integration before the end of 2023 (and thus, almost certainly passing ChatGPT in users) much more likely

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr Yes, maybe it won't be called Bard, but they're finally on track

predicts YES

@alby Well, if it isn't Bard, this isn't going to resolve YES. But Bard still exists, and they said they're rolling out support in 40 languages for it, so it's clearly not going away any time soon.

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr Yes, also ChatGPT may change name in future releases or as a feature inside Microsoft suite... There should be another market considering Microsoft VS Alphabet AI users as a whole, but for now that's it

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Is anyone long this based on current capabilities? I am happy for people who want to take my mana, especially if they want to show me what I’m missing.

predicts YES

@Tyler31 Google is a huge search engine, and bard is estimated to have 1 billion users if it launched on the main page. It’s really “Will google deploy bard and link to it on the main page by the end of 2023”

predicts YES

I still think this is undervalued... Bard is now showing on the home screen.

predicts YES
predicts YES

How does this resolve if Bard does not disclose their user count?

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr I guess we will have an idea of which one of the two services will have more users by 2024

predicts YES

@alby What if we don't?

predicts YES

@ShadowyZephyr I guess we'll all die in ignorance?

predicts YES

It's still on a waitlist

Right now, access to Bard is limited. Please confirm you’d like to join the waitlist and you’ll receive an email when it’s your turn.

predicts YES

@Odoacre I've already being granted the access. I think the waitlist is very short now...

predicts YES

@alby I think most of these sources are fake

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