Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2024?
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Dec 31
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Lol, I just bought my own limit order by accident

Can you clarify what you mean by outcompete? Smaller process node? Better flop/watt?

predicts NO

Sister markets - for the joy of @JoshuaWilkes 🤗

predicts NO

This question is screaming for some siblings with longer time frames #justsayin

predicts NO

@JoshuaWilkes You're right, but it can get pretty technical... which timeframe you'd suggest? 2030?

predicts NO

@alby 26, 28, 30, 32, 34?

It would take around a decade for China to catch up, and both countries will fail when capitalism collapses. Semiconductor will be manufactured on a small scale in countries close to volcanic brines with materials.

@DuSusisu So put all your money on NO 🤣

@alby Replying to this comment so you see it (I've been told that apparently, notifications don't work on Ads comments). But you've been spamming your markets in the comments on other people's unrelated ads. As of such, I gave you a warning 3 days ago which you ignored (or maybe didn't see).

I was planning to issue a 7 day restriction, https://manifold.markets/post/ad-35b20e6cabc3#DUTVdLeT8fwmTBbfimRB, however decided I'll give you one more chance as perhaps you didn't see the warning due to the lack of notifications on ads.

predicts NO

@DavidChee ok, didn't see! Got it now

predicts NO

@DavidChee BTW the line between 'spam' and promotion is debatable. The market is full of 'Will this market reach 10%?' kind of questions that gets hundreds of traders and if any user come up with genuine topics what is left to him/her in order to promote them? I found posting comments in the ads section one way to let people see my markets, but if it's to be considered just spam I won't do of course...

@alby I agree we definitely need to figure out improved systems for promoting markets and making some of the more niche questions more discoverable. We have spent a lot of time working on improving the feed and are adding some version of sorting by categories soon.

Occasionally linking your markets if they are relevant is fine, but posting them on every single ad which isn't related is not. Thanks for engaging with me in a constructive manner!

predicts NO

@DavidChee actually what I'd like is an ability to 'turn off' markets for things like 'will I get a job' or 'will X people bet on this'. Obviously enough people like them, but they are not for everyone

@JoshuaWilkes if you havent already you should go to the "personal" group and the "fun" group and block them. I believe this should make you not have to see those types of markets for the most part.

predicts NO

@DavidChee thanks very much, that's exactly what I was looking for

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