Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2026, credible and verifiable reports from major international or regional media, NGOs, or government sources confirm that Israeli civilians have established any physical presence in the Gaza Strip with the intent to settle.

Qualifying activities include:

• Erection, occupation, or sustained use of any structure—permanent or temporary (e.g., tent, shack, cabin, or prefab unit)—where the stated or reasonably inferred purpose is to establish a civilian foothold.

• A substantial group of Israeli civilians known to be affiliated with the settler movement residing in Gaza under the auspices of a civilian organization and housed in living quarters intended for ongoing occupancy. Affiliation may be based on public statements, organizational ties, or prior settlement activity.

Exclusions:

• Purely military activity.

• Transient humanitarian staff.

• Journalists.

• Isolated individuals whose presence is unrelated to settlement activity.

Importantly, this market will resolve Yes regardless of whether such activity is officially sanctioned by the Israeli government or military. Unauthorized, rogue, or extralegal settler actions—including those in direct defiance of military orders—qualify, provided they meet the above criteria and are credibly documented.

Background

In recent years, there has been a resurgence of interest among certain segments of the Israeli settler movement and political leadership to reestablish a civilian presence in the Gaza Strip, from which Israel unilaterally withdrew settlers in 2005. Notable developments include:

• October 2024: Jewish settlers, including members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet, convened near Gaza's border, advocating for the re-establishment of settlements. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir expressed desires to renew these settlements and suggested encouraging Palestinians in Gaza to emigrate voluntarily. (reuters.com)

• November 2024: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for Israel to seize control of the Gaza Strip and strip Hamas of its authority, emphasizing the need for decisive action in Gaza and the West Bank. (jpost.com)

• February 2025: Smotrich stated that if Hamas failed to return all hostages, Israel would permanently seize land in the Gaza Strip, expanding agricultural areas of nearby kibbutzim into Gaza's perimeter. (jns.org)

• May 2025: Smotrich predicted that within a few months, Gaza would be "totally destroyed," with its population confined to a narrow strip of land, and the rest of the enclave emptied. (timesofisrael.com)

These statements and actions indicate a significant push within certain Israeli political factions to reestablish settlements in Gaza.

Considerations

• International Law: Israeli settlements in occupied territories are widely considered illegal under international law. The reestablishment of settlements in Gaza could lead to significant international condemnation and potential legal challenges.

• Security Implications: The presence of Israeli settlers in Gaza could escalate tensions and lead to increased violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

• Humanitarian Concerns: Efforts to encourage or force Palestinian emigration from Gaza raise serious ethical and humanitarian issues, including potential violations of human rights.

Traders should monitor credible news sources and official statements for developments related to Israeli settler activities in Gaza to inform their positions in this market.