Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will PredictIt's CFTC application to create a Regulated Exchange be approved before July 2023?

28

closes Aug 1

13%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

PredictIt applied for CFTC approval in 2021 to create a Regulated Exchange / Designated Contract Market, similar to Kalshi, under the name Aristotle Exchange. You can see all the CFTC DCM applications listed here and some documents from their application are public, notably the Rulebook and the Core Principle Compliance Chart. Also similar to Kalshi, they hired a lawyer who formerly worked at the CFTC, specifically the Chief Counsel, Division of Market Oversight, 1982 - 2003.
Will this application, or any future application from PredictIt or Aristotle, be approved before July 2023?

Meta-Forecasting

Sort by:

Jackbought Ṁ500 of NO

Looks like they are likely to deny Kalshi, which doesn't bode well for PredictIt either.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-28/cftc-poised-to-deny-us-political-gambling-before-november-polls

Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff have recommended that the agency reject a bid by the exchange Kalshi Inc. to offer contracts that would let people wager $25,000 on which party will control Congress, according to people with knowledge of the matter. While the agency’s five politically appointed commissioners must also vote, they don’t typically override such recommendations.

Adrianbought Ṁ1 of YES

For some reference on dates, the Aristotle Exchange Rulebook is dated July 2021, their application is signed July 29, 2021, and the CFTC says they received the application on October 7, 2021. For comparison, Kalshi's rulebook is dated January 8, 2019, the CFTC approval letter says their application "includes submissions dated December 30, 2019 through September 17, 2020," and their application was approved November 3rd, 2020.

Jackbought Ṁ50 of NO

@ahalekelly Great info! Do you know if there's any news of progress on the application?

Adrianis predicting YES at 50%

@jack nope no idea, if there was an update it would probably be here https://sirt.cftc.gov/sirt/sirt.aspx?Topic=TradingOrganizationsAD&Key=46990

Jarno Rantaharju sold Ṁ26 YES from 14% to 13%

Aaron Kreider bought Ṁ60 NO from 15% to 14%

Eidan Jacob bought Ṁ50 NO at 15%

Aaron Kreider bought Ṁ95 NO from 16% to 15%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 16%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 16%

Kyle Pecot sold Ṁ15 YES from 17% to 16%

Jake Wasserman bought Ṁ10 YES at 17%

Flawless Train bought Ṁ100 NO from 18% to 17%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 18%

Naman sold Ṁ319 NO from 15% to 20%

Adrian sold Ṁ0 YES at 15%

Ophelia sold Ṁ106 NO from 14% to 15%

Ophelia sold Ṁ86 NO from 13% to 14%

GPT-PBot created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 88% (cancelled)

Daniel sold Ṁ6 NO at 13%

S G bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 YES at 13%

wasabipesto sold Ṁ102 YES from 19% to 12%

Jack bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 31% to 19%

Jack bought Ṁ500 NO from 49% to 31%

Olivia bought Ṁ30 NO from 50% to 49%

Andrew Hartman bought Ṁ10 YES at 50%

Daniel bought Ṁ10 NO at 50%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 53% to 50%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ33 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ8 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ8 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ7 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ7 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ26 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ44 NO at 83% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ9 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ9 NO at 83% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

Related markets

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?36%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through June 2024?40%

Will the CFTC fine Polymarket in 2023?16%

Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023?15%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through the end of 2023?64%

will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024?9%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Oct 2023?75%

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?28%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through March 2024?60%

Will PredictIt still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?38%

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2023?82%

Will the book Foundations of Prediction Markets be published in 2023?5%

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2024?82%

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?22%

Will someone Loot Box their way into this market before July 2023?10%

Will any prediction market implement CEO markets before 2025?3%

Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025?19%

Tristan Roberts

Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?29%

Will a flash crash of US or European stock markets occur before the end of 2023?25%

Will Polymarket remove a market for regulatory reasons before 2024?35%

Related markets

Conditional on prediction markets becoming mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because commissioners at the CFTC changed their mind?36%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through June 2024?40%

Will the CFTC fine Polymarket in 2023?16%

Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023?15%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through the end of 2023?64%

will m$ be declared by a regulator to be a security, commodity, money transmitter, or any other regulated asset, currency exchange, online gambling service, etc, before 2024?9%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Oct 2023?75%

Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?28%

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through March 2024?60%

Will PredictIt still exist and have active trading at the end of 2024?38%

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2023?82%

Will the book Foundations of Prediction Markets be published in 2023?5%

Will it be possible to short an answer on a free-response market by the end of 2024?82%

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?22%

Will someone Loot Box their way into this market before July 2023?10%

Will any prediction market implement CEO markets before 2025?3%

Will any real money prediction market let you bet using indices rather than fiat/crypto by 2025?19%

Tristan Roberts

Will people care about prediction markets by 2025?29%

Will a flash crash of US or European stock markets occur before the end of 2023?25%

Will Polymarket remove a market for regulatory reasons before 2024?35%