PredictIt applied for CFTC approval in 2021 to create a Regulated Exchange / Designated Contract Market, similar to Kalshi, under the name Aristotle Exchange. You can see all the CFTC DCM applications listed here and some documents from their application are public, notably the Rulebook and the Core Principle Compliance Chart. Also similar to Kalshi, they hired a lawyer who formerly worked at the CFTC, specifically the Chief Counsel, Division of Market Oversight, 1982 - 2003.
Will this application, or any future application from PredictIt or Aristotle, be approved before July 2023?
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Looks like they are likely to deny Kalshi, which doesn't bode well for PredictIt either.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff have recommended that the agency reject a bid by the exchange Kalshi Inc. to offer contracts that would let people wager $25,000 on which party will control Congress, according to people with knowledge of the matter. While the agency’s five politically appointed commissioners must also vote, they don’t typically override such recommendations.
For some reference on dates, the Aristotle Exchange Rulebook is dated July 2021, their application is signed July 29, 2021, and the CFTC says they received the application on October 7, 2021. For comparison, Kalshi's rulebook is dated January 8, 2019, the CFTC approval letter says their application "includes submissions dated December 30, 2019 through September 17, 2020," and their application was approved November 3rd, 2020.
@ahalekelly Great info! Do you know if there's any news of progress on the application?
@jack nope no idea, if there was an update it would probably be here https://sirt.cftc.gov/sirt/sirt.aspx?Topic=TradingOrganizationsAD&Key=46990