Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES if Hamas and Israel both publicly agree simultaneously, in apparent good faith, to some version of Trump's plan.
Implementation is not required for resolution.
If there is substantial ambiguity about whether an agreement counts, the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Modifications to Trump's plan can still resolve YES if the plan's central points remain mostly intact.
Central points (per BBC listing): 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16. Deals not including nearly all of these mostly intact will resolve NO or N/A.
Important but flexible: points 5, 9, 12, 15 may be modified without affecting resolution.
If the agreement is very different from the original (i.e., ambiguous whether it is Trump's plan), the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Point 6 is not core; modifications to it are allowed. If Point 6 is modified but most other central points are agreed to, the market can still resolve YES.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait to see confirmation that a deal was actually signed and review the details of the deal before resolving. Market looks likely to resolve YES at this point based on Trump's announcement.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is waiting for confirmation that a deal was actually signed and will review which specific points were agreed to before resolving, as resolution depends on whether the agreed points match the criteria outlined in previous updates.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Hamas refuses to fully disarm, the market will resolve NO (not N/A), as this would violate point 13, which is a central point of Trump's plan.
Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve immediately after the signing ceremony (expected within 24 hours from 2025-10-12 12:40 PDT).
Points that count: Any included in the first phase deal that is signed + any points either side seems adamant on as of the signing.
If insufficient for YES/NO, will use % resolution:
If any central points (1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16) are points of adamant refusal → NO
Central points count as 15% each
Also-important points (5, 9, 12, 15) count as 2.5% each
% resolution = sum of all points agreed to (partial credit may be assigned)
If all central points agreed to → YES
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ19,130 | |
| 2 | Ṁ10,220 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5,426 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4,090 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,974 |
People are also trading
I sold all my shares yesterday, so I don't have any preference for YES or NO.
When it comes to declarations, I've seen conflicting messages from supposed Hamas spokepersons.
When it comes to facts, if this killing is true, it is a very strong signal for "adamant refusal to relinquish power":
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-said-to-kill-over-30-gazans-as-terror-group-moves-to-reassert-its-grip-on-strip/
The full text of the The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity signed yesterday is now published:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-releases-full-text-of-gaza-peace-plan-signed-by-trump-and-heads-of-egypt-qatar-and-turkey/
This declaration is probably not a surprise for anyone following closely the negotiations. As expected for day 0 after hostages release:
1) celebration of phase 1 succesful execution
2) commitment to discuss phase 2..n
"We are united in our determination to dismantle extremism and radicalization in all its forms. No society can flourish when violence and racism is normalized, or when radical ideologies threaten the fabric of civil life."
signed by the mediators Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey
can we read this between the lines?
- we acknowledge Hamas didn't commit to disarming yet
- we will keep working to convince them to disarm and relinquish power
@DevdaDavid Yeah, absolutely. (As a NO holder, I actually stand to gain from this, but imo in the name of fairness this shouldn't have resolved this early)
@DevdaDavid on the comments "This was resolved too early"
I agree with you that closing first and waiting for a retrospective resolution would have been more prudent, but the rules for resolution timing were clear.
The author clearly said in their last extension announcement: "I plan to resolve this market immediately after the signing ceremony."
So, the resolution timing was known to all of us upfront.
When I read the last extension announcement I sold immediately my full NO position, because it was to me unpredictable how this market would be resolved at the time of the signature ceremony.
I was expecting the resolution would depend on the authors discretional interpretation of "adamant refusal" with uncomplete information, prioritizing an earlier resolution vs. a clearer outcome in a never ending market. And I sold my positions accordingly to reduce risks.
To be honest, the option of "closing first and then waiting 2-3 days for a retrospective informed resolution" was not on the top of my head. I'm quite new to Manifold and predictions markets, so this is the first time I'm in front of this closing and resolution timing situation.
If I would have had this idea yesterday, I would have recommended @ae to do it this way.
I guess we are all learning, and this was also for the author the first time with such a big, complex and difficult to resolve market.
"President Trump signed a document recognizing the cease-fire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas during a summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The leaders of Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, sitting alongside Trump, also signed the document. All four countries served as mediators between Israel and Hamas. Absent from the signing table were the representatives of the warring parties, Israel and Hamas. Hamas, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, wasn’t invited to the summit, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined his invitation."
lol its a "peace agreement" where a grand total of zero parties supposedly now at peace are at the signing.
@traders last extension!
Trump is on his way to Egypt, and there is to be a deal signing ceremony "in under 24 hours" (written two hours ago, at 2025-10-12 12:40 PDT; source: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/live-blog/israel-hamas-live-updates-families-hostages-await-release-trump-travel-rcna237100).
Given previous discussion of phased negotiation plans counting as deals, I plan to resolve this market immediately after the signing ceremony. The points that will "count" towards the point by point criteria will be any that are included in the first phase deal that is signed + any points that either side seems adamant on as of the signing.
If that's not enough to reach YES or NO, I'll renege on my previous guidance and do a % resolution as follows:
If any central points are points of adamant refusal, resolution is NO
In determining a % resolution, central points (1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16) count as 15% each. Also-important points (5, 9, 12, 15) count as 2.5% each. The % resolution will be the sum of all points agreed to. I may assign partial credit if that seems fair.
If all central points are agreed to, resolution is YES.
Obviously, many edge cases are possible. Feel free to ask about them.
Points of the plan still refer to:
@ae most sources are reporting disarmament will not be in stage one
Al jazeera says "In his remarks, Trump said that the disarmament of Hamas would be part of the second phase of the deal, with Israel maintaining that Hamas must give up its weapons."
BBC says "There are likely to be multiple points of contention during the negotiations over later phases of the deal. Hamas has previously refused to lay down its weapons, saying it would only do so once a Palestinian state had been established. The group also made no mention of disarming in its initial response to the plan last weekend, fuelling speculation that its position had not changed."
if there is nothing about disarming in stage one is that no for violating point 9?