I created this market:

https://manifold.markets/MiguelLM/what-will-the-hamas-disarmament-agr?r=TWlndWVsTE0

I hope you will like it.

I finally opted for a big multi market because there are many interesting topics to be known about the disarmament agreement.

@traders I would appreciate your help for the first question I will create:

1) review if the options make sense to you
2) clarity of resolution criteria
3) thougts about the "best comment bonus"
4) closure timing OK?
5) if anyone is interested in adding liquidity, let me know

I paste in the next comment the draft

Type of Hamas disarmament agreement in 2025 + Bonus 100M best comment

A) Similar to New York Declaration: weapons handover to Palestine Authority

B) Similar to Trump’s Peace Plan: offensive destroyed + weapons beyond use

C) No disarmament agreement signed before market closure

Market Goal

The intent of this market is to figure out how the Hamas disarmament agreement will look like.

Response Options

I will resolve YES to the closest option among the ones offered. See details:

Similar to New York Declaration: weapons handover to Palestine Authority

“Hamas must end its role in Gaza, and handover its weapons to the Palestinian Authority with possible international engagement and support.” https://www.un.org/unispal/document/annex-new-york-declaration-06aug25/

Similar to Trump’s Peace Plan: offensive destroyed + weapons beyond use

“All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors.”

Point 13 of Trump’s peace plan

No disarmament agreement signed before market closure
If by market closure there is no evidence of ongoing negotiations close to end up in a disarmament deal signed by Hamas

Market closure

I intend to close the market by January 2026. If there are very clear signs that negotiations are ongoing and a deal is expected soon, I may extend the closure date.

Bonus 100 Mana for the comment with the language closest to the deal

I expect the final wording of the agreement may not match exactly any of the options offered. It is very difficult to add all possible variants with their nuances as possible answers, but it is still interesting for me to read what you expect these nuances will look like.

1)        I will create a comment thread where you can post your proposed wording for the disarmament agreement

2)        You can post 1 or more proposals. Please clearly mark within quotation marks the wording you expect for the disarmament agreement, and you can also give explanations

3)        If Hamas signs a disarmament agreement, I will select the comment with the wording closest to the signed deal, based on my own judgment, and give a 100 Mana tip to the author

4)        If Hamas never signs a disarmament agreement, no comment will get a tip

Market creator participation

I will not bet in the market

I will add a Related markets section that will not go into the market description, and I will post it as a comment.

This will keep the description shorter and clearer, and will allow me to update the related markets with additional comments when more markets are created.

Related markets

Other markets try to assess whether Hamas will disarm or not, such as: https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-hamas-disarm-and-relinquish-po

I’m not aware of markets about the exact timing for the agreement, the disarmament execution start and the disarmament completion date, but I may create them later.

Thanks for your participation! You can keep voting, commenting, inviting others to participate.

So far disarmament is ahead with the votes of @DevdaDavid, @robert and @TheAllMemeingEye.
I think it is interesting to know who? when? and how?

Does anyone want to help me draft or review the resolution criteria?