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MANIFOLD
Will DeepSWE be ≥90% solved at <$5/task before 2027?
9
Ṁ1kṀ2k
Dec 31
58%
chance

This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, 00:00 UTC, any model listed on the official Datacurve DeepSWE leaderboard reaches both:

  1. ≥90% Pass@1, and

  2. average cost per task <$5.00.

Use the displayed point estimates on the official leaderboard only.

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Gemini 3.8-flash 74% $2.36

Sol xhigh at 71%/$4.70.

Fable 5 [low] at 60% / $3.76: https://deepswe.datacurve.ai/

Same question at any cost: /adssx/will-deepswe-be-saturated-before-20