Will DeepSWE be ≥90% solved at <$5/task before 2027?
9
Ṁ1kṀ2kDec 31
58%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027, 00:00 UTC, any model listed on the official Datacurve DeepSWE leaderboard reaches both:
≥90% Pass@1, and
average cost per task <$5.00.
Use the displayed point estimates on the official leaderboard only.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?
90% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
27% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
When will SWE-bench be solved?
Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
32% chance
Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
99% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
8/29/26
By when will SAT solvers be 10x faster (than 2023 on same hardware)?
Will go be solved before 2040?
7% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?
90% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
27% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
When will SWE-bench be solved?
Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
32% chance
Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
99% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
8/29/26
By when will SAT solvers be 10x faster (than 2023 on same hardware)?
Will go be solved before 2040?
7% chance