Will DeepSWE be saturated before 2027 (≥90%)?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ251Dec 31
92%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC, any model on the official Datacurve DeepSWE leaderboard is shown with a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the Best / All effort levels leaderboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Same question with cost constraint: https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-deepswe-be-90-solved-at-5task
People are also trading
Related questions
Will DeepSWE be ≥90% solved at <$5/task before 2027?
41% chance
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
7% chance
Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before August 2026?
24% chance
Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027?
13% chance
By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?
7% chance
What will be the highest score on the SWE-bench pro private set before 2027?
68.0
Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
70% chance
Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?
30% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?