Pat Gelsinger's bet: Wavelength below 13.5nm (EUV) used in lithography before April 2036?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ192036
42%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves positively if credible media reports that a process node that uses light below 13.5 nm entered mass production before April 2036.
This is a bet that Pat Gelsinger, Intel's ex-CEO, made with Ian Cutress: https://youtu.be/SauujHpNpXY?t=2300
Pat is working with xLight on free-electron lasers for photolithography.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a real alternative to EUV emerge before 2028?
13% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?
81% chance
Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
7% chance
Will Lynas LAMP NdPr oxide production exceed 3500 tonnes NdPr oxide on June 30, 2026?
25% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
37% chance
Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2027?
69% chance
Will Intel's photonics CPUs be available before 2027?
12% chance
Will Intel's lithography catch up with TSMC by 2028?
14% chance
Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?
17% chance
Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?
60% chance