Will China have a domestic EUV maker by 2030?
4
455
Ṁ65Ṁ110
2030
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography is a key technology for manufacturing next-generation computer chips. ASML, a Dutch company based in Eindhoven, is currently the only supplier of EUV lithography machines.
The Dutch government has since 2019 refused to give ASML an export license to sell the machines to mainland Chinese companies. If China were to therefore continue developing its domestic semiconductor industry, having its own EUV maker would be critical.
Resolves YES if in 2030 a Chinese company is producing EUV machines in China; resolves NO otherwise.
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