@traders I'm thinking of changing this to be resolved based on who the AP calls the election for, which I think will be better aligned with the intent of this market since exit polls don't account for mail-in ballots which are pretty significant (h/t SemioticRivalry).

But before I do that, I want to give you a chance to object if this seems unfair. Additionally, if I do change it, I will be happy to reimburse the mana you traded on this market before today if you ask.

Alright, updated now.

Woah! I bought NO because of the mail-in ballot for flaw! I definitely want my mana back with this changing massively like this

@Enlil I guess it's my bad I didn't see the notification, but it really sucks to fundamentally change a market like this. Why not create new market if one is wanted for something totally different?

@Enlil Sorry about that. I've sent you your mana back.

I wanted this market to resolve according to my intention with it, and it also seemed like it would be more difficult than I had anticipated to resolve the market by the old criteria.

@adele Thank you very much for the refund! I honestly thought the mail-in ballot issue made this a more interesting market, but wouldn't want to have to evaluate that either 😂

It's a little bit of a bummer that the loss here still impacts the rankings, but I guess it cannot be helped now.

I like the question! Added it to the US Democracy dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy

Exit polling is a very bad metric to use for this, American exit polls typically don't even project a final result.

you can do some math to figure out what topline results they got but they don't actually release the questions- and the 'winner' of the exit polls can also lose the electoral college while winning the popular vote. CNN exit had ~Clinton + 1.7 which was pretty spot on, but she lost the electoral colege

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

The risks in the description can be captured by changing the criteria to the winner as determined by the media projections, especially the Associated Press.

I was planning to use the exit-polls per state, and then use that to count the predicted electoral vote.

But yeah, using media projections might be better.

@adele am I correct to assume that you won't change the resolution criteria to the media projections?

@Siebe Oh shoot, thanks for the reminder!

I think I do want to change this, but I want to ask the traders to give people a chance to object first.

Are mail-in ballots captured by exit polls? I don't think so, right? If it's indeed not captured that seems like a big source for a potential difference in exit polls vs actual votes.