Will the singularity occur by 2040?
resolved Feb 3

The singularity refers to the point at which artificial general intelligence is achieved, reaches at least human-level capabilities, and what exactly happens next becomes extremely unpredictable.

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What about comparing Manifold's calibration before and after the singularity?

If "what exactly happens next becomes extremely unpredictable", then we should be able to see this by comparing Manifold's calibration graph from before to after, and we should find that it gets worse.

@acouturi7 the close date should be in 2040 or 2041

This is not an accurate definition of singularity. Singularity requires rapidly accelerating technological growth. At the time we achieve AGI with human-level capabilities, it is entirely possible we may only have modest technological growth. It is also, in theory, possible to achieve singularity without AGI - for example, with rapidly accelerating improvements to human intelligence.


What exactly will you do to measure when the "singularity" has "happened"?

@ScroogeMcDuck Same question here. How a prediction for 2040 will be closed by Feb 2024?? Even if we wait 2040, we still have to decide HOW to measure Singularity.

"Au contraire. It happened on June 6th, 1969, at eleven hundred hours, eastern seaboard time. That was when the first network control protocol packets were sent from the data port of one IMP to another – the first ever Internet connection. That's the singularity. Since then we've all been living in a universe that was impossible to predict from events prior to that time."

@RemNi i would rather say it happened in 1804


@RemNi coincidentally, I read that for the first time ever just today!

@Tomoffer Read on!

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