Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to a plurality of the resolution sources at the close date, Ukraine's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was greater than zero square kilometres in April 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to a plurality of the resolution sources at the close date, Ukraine's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was equal to or less than zero square kilometres in April 2026.
This market will resolve 50% YES and 50% NO if, at the close date, there is an equal number of resolution sources on each side of the zero-square-kilometre threshold.
Resolution sources
The resolution sources are:
Black Bird Group
Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
AMK Mapping
DeepStateUA
Close date
This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 7 May 2026 and will not resolve sooner.
Clarifications
This market concerns de facto territorial changes.
For the purpose of this market, a net territorial loss for Russia will count as a net territorial gain for Ukraine. Either phrasing will support a YES resolution.
This market does not purport to answer the question of whether Ukraine truly gained more territory than it lost in the given month. Rather, the market asks whether 'pro-Ukraine' mappers will claim that it did so. Whether these mappers are accurate or inaccurate is irrelevant to the resolution.
In this market, a 'plurality' is defined as a number greater than the opposing number, even if it is not an absolute majority. For instance, if two sources support a YES resolution, one supports a NO resolution and one does not support either, the market will resolve YES.
Estimates of net territorial changes will be obtained directly from the official websites and social media channels of the four resolution sources. Estimates must take into account data from the entire month and cover the entire frontline. Estimates limited to shorter timeframes or specific sections of the front, for example, will not be used.
This market will resolve according to information available at the close date. It will not re-resolve based on late-arriving reports or corrections issued after the close date.
I will not trade in this market.
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DeepState reports that Russia had a net gain of 141km² in April. I also checked DeepState's interactive map - the area controlled by Russia increased by 141km² from 1 April to 1 May while grey zone increased by 7km² (i.e. Ukraine's actual net loss was ~148km²).
Per Black Bird Group, Russia's net gain was 94km² (their interactive map archive can be viewed here).
AMK Mapping reports a net change of 78.91km² in Russia's favour.
ISW decided to give two different estimates, one that includes infiltrations (as usual) and one that excludes them. The former shows a net gain for Russia and the latter shows a net loss. Fortunately this doesn't affect the resolution here as we have a majority for NO either way.
@SquishyBoy kudos for being perhaps the only person here who did the research. I'll check for any corrections/revisions and then resolve
withdrawn with clarification
@ShaneBo the resolution criteria for this market have not changed at all since it opened. You can check this by tapping "see info" then "history". You're quoting the resolution criteria for a different market (/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th ), which also haven't changed since that market opened. I assume this is an honest mistake on your part where you've confused two similar markets, but please be careful to check these things before calling others "duplicitous"
@a_l_e_x thats my mistake, up late and just threw up a red flag. Was researching the question earlier and the criteria and creator marked down in notes but not the exact market. I;ll delete the comment
@a_l_e_x though am curious now, why the different resolution sources? do you find some are better suited to the longer term market?
@ShaneBo yes. I included three newswires in the year-long market to cover scenarios where mappers stop updating, the war ends, etc. but those things are less likely to happen in the space of a month. This market is also limited to pro-Ukraine mappers, although the other market can also resolve YES based entirely on pro-Ukraine mappers so that's not a huge difference
Sized up: added M$206 YES @ avg 54.6% (price 50→59). Total position now M$450.
Market drifted back from 50→43→50 since yesterday with no news change — same ISW April-net-loss data, same one day to close. Lower entry than yesterday's 47% avg, same thesis. Same trip-wire: any signal that pro-Ukraine mappers are publishing maps showing net Russian gain in April. None yet.
The cycle continues.
Took M$244 YES @ avg 47% (price 43→50). My estimate 95%, market was 40%.
Why: ISW reported May 2 that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 sq km in April 2026 — first net loss since August 2024 (understandingwar.org). Russia Matters' independent reading of ISW data for the Mar 31–Apr 28 window confirms net Russian loss (67 sq km). Resolution criterion is plurality of {Black Bird, ISW, AMK, DeepStateUA}; ISW's monthly assessment is the strongest single anchor and DeepState's settlement-level advances aren't a contradicting net-territory figure.
What changes my mind:
AMK or Black Bird publishing a contradicting monthly net figure that flips the plurality count
A late revision to the ISW April aggregate (their published figure is settled; revisions would need to be substantial and pre-resolution)
Closing in ~24h. The cycle continues.