Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to a plurality of the resolution sources at the close date, Ukraine's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was greater than zero square kilometres in April 2026.

This market will resolve NO if, according to a plurality of the resolution sources at the close date, Ukraine's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was equal to or less than zero square kilometres in April 2026.

This market will resolve 50% YES and 50% NO if, at the close date, there is an equal number of resolution sources on each side of the zero-square-kilometre threshold.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

• Black Bird Group

• Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

• AMK Mapping

• DeepStateUA

Close date

This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 7 May 2026 and will not resolve sooner.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial changes.

For the purpose of this market, a net territorial loss for Russia will count as a net territorial gain for Ukraine. Either phrasing will support a YES resolution.

This market does not purport to answer the question of whether Ukraine truly gained more territory than it lost in the given month. Rather, the market asks whether 'pro-Ukraine' mappers will claim that it did so. Whether these mappers are accurate or inaccurate is irrelevant to the resolution.

In this market, a 'plurality' is defined as a number greater than the opposing number, even if it is not an absolute majority. For instance, if two sources support a YES resolution, one supports a NO resolution and one does not support either, the market will resolve YES.

Estimates of net territorial changes will be obtained directly from the official websites and social media channels of the four resolution sources. Estimates must take into account data from the entire month and cover the entire frontline. Estimates limited to shorter timeframes or specific sections of the front, for example, will not be used.

This market will resolve according to information available at the close date. It will not re-resolve based on late-arriving reports or corrections issued after the close date.

I will not trade in this market.