Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine achieves a net territorial gain in the week ending 16 May.

This market will resolve NO if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine does not achieve a net territorial gain in the week ending 16 May.

This market will otherwise resolve 50% YES and 50% NO.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

DeepStateUA

Poulet volant

Clarifications

DeepStateUA's estimate will be obtained by comparing its most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 16 May with its update at 23:43 EEST on 9 May. Ukraine's net territorial change will be inferred from changes to the area controlled by Russia and the area controlled by neither side.

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (1 traders, as of May 12, 2026).