Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, in any month of 2026, Ukraine’s net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is greater than zero square kilometres according to two or more of the following sources:

• ISW

• Black Bird Group

• Divgen

• LostArmour

• Creamy caprice

• Reuters

• Agence France-Presse

• Associated Press

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

This market concerns de facto territorial changes. Territory gained or lost by diplomatic means (i.e. in a peace treaty) will be counted in this market, as well as territory gained or lost militarily.

For the purpose of this market, Ukraine’s net territorial gain can be understood as equal in magnitude and opposite in direction to Russia’s net territorial loss in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

I will not trade in this market.