Background

Based on this recurring market from @a_l_e_x:
/a_l_e_x/will-labor-lead-one-nation-in-the-p

/a_l_e_x/will-labor-lead-one-nation-in-the-p-q0Cqqq5NSE

I am essentially copying the same resolution criteria, only swapping out Labor for the Coalition (see below for details).

In the past few weeks, One Nation has been on the decline in national polls and the Coalition has been recovering somewhat, such that it seems like a real possibility that if trends continue, the Coalition could retake the position of being the primary alternative to Labor. The Coalition already regained a slight lead for second place in the 13-19 July poll from Roy Morgan (23.0% to 22.5%), though lost it again in Roy Morgan's following poll the next week and have been in third in every other publicly-released poll since May.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, the Liberal-National Coalition has a larger primary vote share than One Nation according to a majority of the following pollsters:

• Roy Morgan

• Pyxis (Newspoll)

• Essential

• YouGov

• DemosAU

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Support for the Liberal-National Coalition will be defined as a sum of support for the Liberal Party, the National Party, the Liberal National Party of Queensland, and the Country Liberal Party, regardless of whether (1) those parties are included together or separately in polls or (2) those parties remain in coalition at close date.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.