General rules

This is a free response market. Users may submit answers that are pertinent to the question posed in the market title. These answers, once submitted, will become my responsibility to resolve appropriately. As new answers are added, I may clarify their resolution criteria in the description if necessary.

I may edit submitted answers for the sake of clarity (e.g. to fix spelling errors). I will not, however, meaningfully change the wording of any answer that has already been traded on. I reserve the right to resolve duplicate, inappropriate and overly ambiguous answers to N/A.

I may bet in this market, although I will refrain from investing heavily in answers when I foresee that their resolution may be contentious.

Answers are unlinked and any number of them may resolve YES.

Information specific to each answer

"He will be target of an assassination attempt" and "He will be the target of a coup attempt"

There will need to be compelling evidence for a YES resolution on each of these answers. Unfounded claims will not be sufficient.

"He will not be the President of Ukraine"

This answer will resolve YES if Zelensky ceases to be the President of Ukraine at any point in 2024, including in the event of his death. It will resolve NO if he remains President throughout the year.

• Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Process Update:

  • A 24-hour objection period is now open for unresolved answers.

  • Unresolved answers will presume a NO resolution after 24 hours unless sufficient evidence or reasoning is presented to justify a YES or N/A resolution. This period may be extended if necessary.

  • For the answer 'He will be the target of an assassination attempt', compelling evidence is required for a YES resolution. Arguments for YES should address the following questions:

  • Was there an assassination attempt or merely an assassination plot?

  • Was Volodymyr Zelensky the intended target?

  • Did it occur in 2024?

  • Is there compelling evidence that it occurred?