Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go above 60% before 2024 ends?
37
301
1k
2025
20%
chance

After the creation of this market, only.

The market in question:

The market must stay above 60% price for >=50% of the time period of 12 hrs to prevent transient spikes from counting.

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bought Ṁ239 of YES

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predicts NO

Hmm these questions only make sense though if they end far before the deadline of the main market. Like, the market has to either go below 10 or above 60... by the time it resolves since this isn't resolving prob.

Given the closing date, makes sense to consider that you meant by 2024 as the spirit

@MarcusAbramovitch In addition, since the main market could be unresolved and reopened at any time, by the letter of the resolution criteria, I think this one needs to not resolve until the end of time.

You are correct though that it should remain closed until then, I find your argument persuasive.

sold Ṁ3 of YES

@MarcusAbramovitch

Like, the market has to either go below 10 or above 60... by the time it resolves since this isn't resolving prob.

This would make sense as an argument if the question said "will the market either go below 10 or above 60". This market is only asking about above 60 so it's completely irrelevant. I didn't even know the below 10 market existed before now.

The point of this market existing is that the original market can go above 60 yet resolve NO.

predicts YES

@NateWatson Also, this market measures till the end of 2024. The base market resolves at the end of 2025.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ScipioFabius thanks for letting me know

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Reopened as this was resolved a year early

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