32
37k
resolved Jan 23
Resolved
NO
Will there be at least 1 volunteer within 1 hrs of this market's creation?
Resolved
NO
Will there be at least 1 volunteer within 2 hrs of this market's creation?
Resolved
NO
Will there be at least 1 volunteer within 3 hrs of this market's creation?
Resolved
YES
Will there be a volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will >1 participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will >=3 participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will >=5 participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >3333 mana?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >5555 mana?
Resolved
YES
Will <=50% of the participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will >50 but <=80% of participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will >80% (but not all) participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will all the participants volunteer?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >6666 mana?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >7777 mana?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >8888 mana?
Resolved
NO
Will the final public pot have >9999 mana?
Resolved
YES
Will someone volunteer in the final 1 hr of the market?
Resolved
YES
Will someone volunteer in the final 30 mins of the market?
Resolved
YES
Will someone volunteer in the final 15 mins of the market?

If someone add at least Ṁ1000 to the public pot, they're a volunteer.

Here is the public pot:

Payouts:

  • If <= 50% of the participants volunteer: 100% of the mana in the pot is distributed evenly among the non-volunteer participants.

  • If >50% but <=80% of the participants volunteer: 75% of the mana in the pot is distributed among non-volunteer participants, the rest kept by the house (me).

  • If >=80% (but not all) of participants volunteer: 50% of the mana in the pot will be kept by me, and 50% will be evenly divided amongst non-volunteer participants.

  • If all participants volunteer: There will be no distribution of the pot and the house (me) keeps the mana.

A participant is someone who has traded on at least one of the markets of this multi market.

If someone adds at least 1000 mana to the pot first and participates afterwards, they're not labeled as a volunteer. They must add to the pot after participating to qualify as a potential volunteer.

Each participant can be counted as a volunteer at most once. They are welcome to add to the pot multiple times, if they wish, but their first addition to the pot that's at least 1000 mana will label them as a volunteer. Enjoy.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,324
2Ṁ534
3Ṁ84
4Ṁ54
5Ṁ48
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When will the bounty be distributed?

@NathanScott as soon as i find the time to do the calculations of whom to distribute it to, or someone else does it for me and gets 100Ṁ as a gift from me for doing so

@firstuserhere 1113 mana divided by 31 people is almost 36 mana per person, or 35 per person and leave some left over. 32 people minus Translates get mana if I'm understanding it right.

@firstuserhere also the 2 open answers would resolve No, unless some of it was contributed after the market closed (that info isn't public).

Is there a way to figure out who the volunteer was?

@TheAllMemeingEye yes all additions to the bounty are public. I got a notif but you can check too via the api. I'll do that when at my computer

I'm 99% sure it's @Translates

@firstuserhere I think @Eliza has a script handy to do that

He also bet before adding the bounty (which he added in the last 15 but not 5 minutes):

lol he barely made profits that's wild

@TheBayesian but merriness all around

Hah, completely forgot about this market going on.

@Fedor me too

Oof that was stressful

Dude I've read the rules like eight times over and I still don't understand. I'm going to bed.

Fun days were when markets like this were dominated by @Mira and catnee

What does "distributed evenly among the non-volunteer participants" mean?

@Milli total amount to be split evenly (1000 mana pot divided into 10 people leads to 100 each) and given to people who didn't volunteer but participated in the market

I'm sure I've misunderstood something basic, but is there any incentive for anyone to volunteer here? It looks like the only profit opportunity is to be a non-volunteer participant who adds a below average amount to the pot, with everything else just leading to increasingly severe losses

@TheAllMemeingEye It would be incentivized if someone saw 1000M in profits to be made in this market, as a direct result of them volunteering, though that is unlikely to happen

@TheBayesian oh right, so like if it was just the first one "will there be any volunteers" then we'd expect it to hover around 0.1% because below that a yes better would make profit by volunteering, but presumably all the other choices add complications causing it to be so far above that

@TheAllMemeingEye Yeah something like that. But also someone might just act in a non-networth-maximizing way, like deciding to sacrifice some of their mana for profits in the market, or someone might just feel like donating to the participants for the heck of it, or other such possibilities. but yeah even like 20% in many options that would flip if one person acted would concern me in terms of their making their mana back, but for options that require many people to do it I don't see them happening

also someone might want to leave manifold or something, and could donate 10k as a parting gift!

Will there be at least 1 volunteer within 3 hrs of this market's creation?

Resolves NO