Will Manifold reach 1200 DAU (7d average) sometime in July 2023?
45
870Ṁ17k
resolved Jul 29
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1200 Daily Active Users.

Resolves NO otherwise.

The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAU

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Thank you for participating in the market everyone. It's been quite a ride watching the market go down and down over the course of the entire month and then suddenly blast upwards and eventually resolve as YES at the end.

Resolves YES @firstuserhere

predictedNO

What caused the boom?

@esusatyo Superconductor stuff going viral on twitter or something. Lots of new users. This question is a yes unless the hype dies off, like, right now.

I got this wrong in the other 1100 market... but I'll leave this here as reference:
(1200 * 7) - (1786 + 1731 + 1057 + 943 + 841 + 784) = 1258 needed for tomorrow, based on current DAU of 1786 (it may go up today further!). This seems possible if the boom continues.

Or on average for the rest of July (Thanks to @ScipioFabius for this idea):

Only need 1021 on average for the next three days: (1021*3 + 1786 + 1057 + 943 + 841) / 7 ~= 1200

@parhizj Shouldn't it be ~1260 avg, since this one is the 1200 DAU?

@BarrDetwix yeah that was a typo

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