Will Manifold reach 1200 DAU (7d average) sometime in July 2023?

Ṁ17K

Ṁ870

resolved Jul 29

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1200 Daily Active Users.

Resolves NO otherwise.

The data source will be the stats page! For reference, on May 3, i see 1032 DAU

Get Ṁ200 play money

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8 Comments

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bought Ṁ6,407 of YES

Thank you for participating in the market everyone. It's been quite a ride watching the market go down and down over the course of the entire month and then suddenly blast upwards and eventually resolve as YES at the end.

bought Ṁ850 of YES

Resolves YES @firstuserhere

@chrisjbillington wow!

predicted NO

What caused the boom?

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@esusatyo Superconductor stuff going viral on twitter or something. Lots of new users. This question is a yes unless the hype dies off, like, right now.

I got this wrong in the other 1100 market... but I'll leave this here as reference:
(1200 * 7) - (1786 + 1731 + 1057 + 943 + 841 + 784) = 1258 needed for tomorrow, based on current DAU of 1786 (it may go up today further!). This seems possible if the boom continues.

Or on average for the rest of July (Thanks to @ScipioFabius for this idea):

Only need 1021 on average for the next three days: (1021*3 + 1786 + 1057 + 943 + 841) / 7 ~= 1200