Will @firstuserhere run a marathon before the end of 2024? ($2k mana sub)
resolved May 1

I've never run a marathon. The max I've done in a single run is <10 kms. That was a year ago I think. I want to get back into running and I think this could be a great challenge. Resolves YES if I run a marathon. Resolves NO if i either don't finish or don't even attempt it.

I don't know about whether marathons have to be registered somewhere or not, so I will search about that and edit the description accordingly. i want to maximize accountability here.

A google search tells me a person can go from couch to marathon in 6 months. I guess I can do that.

Get αΉ€600 play money
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Resolves N/A?

@VAPOR Oh wow. Didn’t know firstuser got deleted

@esusatyo Free FUH! (and his many alts)

@VAPOR was he banned or did he rage-quit?

@AlQuinn I saw something on the front page go by, that he was banned for either having too many alts or something else relating to alts

Edit: also the comment of mine above is liked by him probably, it's liked by @~deleted~ an actual deleted account, so he's still able to haunt the site πŸ‘»πŸ‘‹πŸ½

@VAPOR Ah interesting. FUH if you are here like this comment and subscribe too if you can.

In Januray, I hardly got much running at all, only 2-3 days. But Since Feb 10th, I've been running almost daily and enjoying it. I've set myself the goal for a half-marathon attempt by mid-year and if that goes well, I can start to think about a marathon late in the year. That'll be really cool if I can attempt it but for now, I'm gonna focus on building up my aerobic base and getting lots of running practice. Here's a tiny widget tracking my daily kms run

@firstuserhere The year seems off in the widget, by the way. I'm seeing almost all the green squares in Feb/March 2023.

@phaen I will fix it, made the widget on a countdown timer of 11 minutes and just rushed to finish. Will fix it today

I suggest that during January you test to see how far you can travel on foot (jogging and walking) in one day, say in 12 hours on Saturday or Sunday.

In 2017 when I was 25 years old I had never ran more than ~11 miles without stopping, and had never hiked more than ~24 miles in one day. Yet my friend and I decided to hike the Grand Canyon 45 miles rim-to-rim-to-rim in one day. To make sure I was capable of doing that, about a month ahead of time I set aside a Saturday to see whether I could manage that distance even on flat ground in one day. I started at 7:00 AM and saw how far I could jog without walking. I got about 19 miles, then walked 2 miles home, showered, relaxed, then walked 5 miles to a restaurant, ate, walked home. Then later in the evening went for another 10+ mile run. In total I traversed about 41 miles on foot in 12 hours. I was amazed how refreshed I was on my last run later in the day. It turns out that resting in the middle of the day and eating helped a lot.

You might benefit from doing something similar. Today I went for 4 runs totaling 20 miles (2 miles, 3.5 miles, 10 miles, and 4.5 miles) over a ~12 hour period after running only 60 miles in all of 2023.

I think you can run/walk a marathon in ~6-7 hours near the end of 2024 if you do merely 300 kms of training. Obviously more training is preferable, but the main thing is logging distance. I think even fast walking lots of miles will help you train for the marathon, so I recommend doing more walking after you get tired of jogging and can't run any longer.

Hope these thoughts help you achieve your fitness goals! See my question I just made for more context on my running background: https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/how-many-miles-will-i-william-kiely

To add: I've done one half marathon and one marathon in my life, in January and February 2018 respectively. My times (IIRC) were 1h:47m and 4h:48m. This was about 3 months after my 45-mile Grand Canyon hike mentioned above. My training in the prior year had consisted of doing daily runs of 2 miles a day, with less in the couple months before the half and full marathon.

bought αΉ€20 NO from 35% to 34%

@WilliamKiely this is excellent commentary/advice.

I would add one thing that helps me is walking/running on uphill grades. Mixing in some of that increases variety, and once you've struggled a bit on a 5 or 10% uphill grade, running on nominally flat ground feels psychologically easier. For my 120k step thing, that's why I got the treadmill with the incline capability.

@WilliamKiely your first paragraph made me remember his one hundred thousand steps market where he walked for as you said probably 12 hours in the same day and more, it's a lot of fun that you didn't know that I think, but he did a crazy popular market where he tried twice, 90k steps to failure, then a second attempt to 100k success

Mans won a lot of mana and others lost a lot, he donated his winnings to charity, it's just fun that you're probably not aware of this epic poem of manifold

@VAPOR I wasn't aware of the 100k step saga. In that case, he has already "run" (walked) a lot more than a marathon before. Given that walking during the marathon isn't forbidden in the resolution criteria for this question, I'm confused why the probability is at only 35%. Is it that @firstuserhere won't choose to attempt a marathon unless he thinks he can jog it all without walking?

@WilliamKiely running only πŸ˜…

In an official marathon , do they have a time limit? what's the average time?

for some reason i can walk forever but had no stamina and struggled a lot over the last month (even now, i do the "old man shuffle" running speed a lot between faster runs instead of walking)

@WilliamKiely I havent yet completed the C25K but am on track to do it before march 21

@firstuserhere > running only πŸ˜…

I'm glad I didn't bet on this question previously! Knowing that that is required I'm definitely at <35%. I'd say more like 5%. Technically you can run/jog very slowly, but even jogging at a 12-13 min/mile pace is hard, as it will mean running for 5h15m-5h40 continuously without walking. Given you haven't ran more than 10k before, I'll be shocked if you improve to being able to run 42k by the end of the year. (If you train a ton and are young/healthy it's plausible though.)

@firstuserhere I'm not a great runner either and convinced it is poor mechanics (flailing around like a crazy person wastes a lot of energy, which is why I dont run too much except for down steep trails). If you have some way of working on running form, that might help more than pushing to run a bit more with bad mechanics.

If you finish the marathon but do some walking rather than all jogging, does that still count to resolve it positively?

Does it have to be an official race, or does it count if you run a marathon on your own?

@WilliamKiely I think it's better to make it an official marathon, because I think i'd have to run a few unofficial ones in training to make sure i can do it

@firstuserhere you gotta get them knees and feet used to abuse, it looks like you're off to a good start, you keep going out often on the graph, I think that's important, you can add more later, but the daily triggers for bone and cartilage growth are going to be v v important 4 u. I put 1200 on you by the way I leeroy jenkinsd you, I personally think it's a good bet tho 😁β™₯️

predicted YES

Honestly, this market should be fairly low. @NicoDelon and others' advice on first going for half-marathon was well received and for the first 3 months of 2024, i will simply be trying to run without a particular distance milestone in order to build stamina (trying to run for longer in each go). Then, if that goes well, I will try to train for a half-marathon. Then if that's doable this year, then I might go for a marathon, but I think that should be a low % for this year

bought αΉ€250 NO from 32% to 29%
predicted YES

@firstuserhere If someone is interested in following granular level daily progress, it is here:

predicted YES

is it just me or is it absolutely insane how low this market is. To quote a great philosopher, "no voters have toe fungus".

bought αΉ€10 NO at 40%
bought αΉ€59 of YES

@shankypanky I'm sure the 50k steps market was/would have been much higher too.

predicted NO

I'm just pointing out that there is more confidence in his running a half than a full (not sure if you knew there's a half marathon market out there)

predicted NO

@KennethAnderson He’s barely started running. We don’t know if he wants to run one. I’ve advised him that running a half this year was wiser. He can probably finish a marathon within the cutoff times but that’s probably not worth it. Better to enjoy it and do well! The question is not asking whether he’s capable but whether he’ll do it.

bought αΉ€1 YES at 40%
predicted YES

@NicoDelon true, but I #believe

bought αΉ€0 of NO

@KennethAnderson Please fill my limit order. If you place it, I can place a new one tomorrow when I have more mana.