How many miles will I @WilliamKiely run in 2024?
Mini
4
แน€943
2025
3%
[0, 100)
11%
[100, 200)
5%
[200, 300)
5%
[300, 400)
3%
[400, 500)
2%
[500, 600)
5%
[600, 700)
34%
[700, 800)
19%
[800, 900)
9%
[900, 1000)
5%
1000 or more miles

For miles to count I have to be running/jogging them. Fast hikes don't count.

Information on me to help you forecast:

  • I am currently 31 years old, 6'4", and my lifetime peak weight was in the last month and was about 225 lbs.

  • In 2023 I ran only 60 miles making it my lowest mileage year of the last 15+ years.

  • My highest mileage year since finishing high school was likely 2017 when I ran 2 miles per day every day for 10 months, and accumulated approximately ~700 miles of running total.

  • In high school I ran cross country and track and my PR in the 5K was 18:36. I weighed 180lbs then. I weighed ~190lbs throughout college until I was ~26 years old.

  • I crossed 200lbs for the first time when I was 29. In the last 24 months I've gained about 20lbs, with most of that gain being in the last year.

  • Today, January 6th, 2024, I went on four separate runs totaling 20 miles at an average pace of ~10:15/mile, thanks to my friend who was visiting helping to motivate me. I hadn't ran in ~4 weeks before today.

  • After my runs today I counted that I had only ran 60 miles in 2023 and decided that I'd commit to 10x-ing my 2023 miles in 2024 and run 600 miles to get back in shape and lose weight. I'm creating this Manifold Markets question to help make this commitment more real. I have not always stuck to my commitments in the past, however I currently think it is more likely than not that I will successfully run 600+ miles this year. The main challenge with whether I meet my goal will likely be whether I start running regularly during the work week, something I have not done in the 8 months I've been at my current job despite wanting to run more. I also haven't ran 300+ miles in a 12 month period since before 2018, so the recent base rate doesn't suggest that 600+ miles is likely, hence why I'm only ~60% confident that I will reach the 600 mile goal. Calling it a commitment brings me up to ~70%, but only ~70% because of how ambitious it is for given my track record of the last 5 years.

Feel free to ask if you'd like more data. I'll plan to post updates periodically about how far I've run and whether I've managed to develop a habit of running regularly or not.

If you think you'd be more likely to participate in this market if I don't participate in the market let me know and I'll perhaps decide to stop making trades in the market (with an announcement to that effect).

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340.2 miles through today.

Do you have a Strava or Garmin profile that we can follow?

@wglane Just for more context: it's very hard to accurately predict someone's total running mileage because there are so many exogenous events that could affect it. You could get injured or ill and have to stop. You could be traveling for weeks and not have time to run. You could simply lose interest. The best we can do is extrapolate based on current volume and look for natural deviations like how quickly you get fatigued from weekly training, how often you've been injured in the past, and what the vector of your training looks like, i.e. are you trending up or down?

136.1 miles through March 10th. I ran 30 miles throughout the day on March 9th (8-ish legs over 12 hours) for a friend's 30th birthday.

Also on Saturday, March 9th, I started a "Running Every* Day" (RED) challenge against my friend (starting a week behind him). There's a 2-mile minimum, and it's not running literally every day because on days that I run more than 4 miles, I'm immune from breaking my streak for the following FLOOR(miles ran today/4). So my 30-mile day on Saturday bought be 7 days of immunity, meaning I technically don't have to run again until this coming Sunday. I do plan to run a few times before then (though note that that does not cause my immunity to get extended).

This modified-RED challenge will keep my daily miles above 2 miles/day. If I keep the challenge up all year (as I hope to) then that will put me at at least 726 miles for the year (726=295*2+136).

80.5 miles total through February. That's 1.342 miles/day over the first 60 days, so I'm pacing for 491 miles for the year.

That said, I'm thinking of starting running (at least 2 miles) every day today after work though and continuing that for the rest of the year, with the modification that running 4+ miles in a day gains me immunity from breaking my RED streak for the following FLOOR(miles/4) days. So technically I could run a marathon once a week and take the other six days off, but in practice I think I'll try literally running every day.

72.9 miles for the year. I had Covid for two weeks and just got back to running on Sunday.

10 runs, 48.6 miles to date. I only ran once this past week (Mon-Sun): Sunday. I intend to ramp up my frequency in February. Feel free to follow me on Strava for live updates: Check out William Kiely on Strava

https://strava.app.link/9iRdHnLPMGb

Fourth running day of the year today: 5.3 miles. I ran 3.8 yesterday. I'm at 33 miles for the year now.

@WilliamKiely that extrapolates to ~800 for the year. I'd be more confident if the frequency was higher than 2 out of 7 days, but that's a good start. Keep it up! (I bet a little higher and lower than your goal assuming the outcome bifurcates as your resolve is tested)

I ran 4.2 miles this morning (done for today).

Made several trades to set the initial pricing based on my currently forecast.