For miles to count I have to be running/jogging them. Fast hikes don't count.

Information on me to help you forecast:

• I am currently 31 years old, 6'4", and my lifetime peak weight was in the last month and was about 225 lbs.

• In 2023 I ran only 60 miles making it my lowest mileage year of the last 15+ years.

• My highest mileage year since finishing high school was likely 2017 when I ran 2 miles per day every day for 10 months, and accumulated approximately ~700 miles of running total.

• In high school I ran cross country and track and my PR in the 5K was 18:36. I weighed 180lbs then. I weighed ~190lbs throughout college until I was ~26 years old.

• I crossed 200lbs for the first time when I was 29. In the last 24 months I've gained about 20lbs, with most of that gain being in the last year.

• Today, January 6th, 2024, I went on four separate runs totaling 20 miles at an average pace of ~10:15/mile, thanks to my friend who was visiting helping to motivate me. I hadn't ran in ~4 weeks before today.

• After my runs today I counted that I had only ran 60 miles in 2023 and decided that I'd commit to 10x-ing my 2023 miles in 2024 and run 600 miles to get back in shape and lose weight. I'm creating this Manifold Markets question to help make this commitment more real. I have not always stuck to my commitments in the past, however I currently think it is more likely than not that I will successfully run 600+ miles this year. The main challenge with whether I meet my goal will likely be whether I start running regularly during the work week, something I have not done in the 8 months I've been at my current job despite wanting to run more. I also haven't ran 300+ miles in a 12 month period since before 2018, so the recent base rate doesn't suggest that 600+ miles is likely, hence why I'm only ~60% confident that I will reach the 600 mile goal. Calling it a commitment brings me up to ~70%, but only ~70% because of how ambitious it is for given my track record of the last 5 years.

Feel free to ask if you'd like more data. I'll plan to post updates periodically about how far I've run and whether I've managed to develop a habit of running regularly or not.

If you think you'd be more likely to participate in this market if I don't participate in the market let me know and I'll perhaps decide to stop making trades in the market (with an announcement to that effect).