Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
68
1kṀ72852039
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
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https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems
1 was solved - the Poincare conjecture - by Grigori Perelman. There are 6 remaining.
There are 17ish years left before this market closes.
Apr 4, 1:51am: Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems by solved by 2040? → Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
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@JosephNoonan Interesting that more than doubling the time frame only gives this market an extra 7%, compared to mine above. I feel like the difference should be larger than that.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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