Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
68
1kṀ73052039
70%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems
1 was solved - the Poincare conjecture - by Grigori Perelman. There are 6 remaining.
There are 17ish years left before this market closes.
Apr 4, 1:51am: Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems by solved by 2040? → Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@JosephNoonan Interesting that more than doubling the time frame only gives this market an extra 7%, compared to mine above. I feel like the difference should be larger than that.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
39% chance
Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
41% chance
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
15% chance
When will one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved?
Will an AI System Solve One of the Remaining Millennium Prize Problems by June 2025?
1% chance
Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
5% chance
Will a new problem be added to the Millennium Prize Problems by the end of 2030?
14% chance
Which millenium problem will be solved first?