Will all 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
91
1kṀ27k
2039
28%
chance

https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems

1 was solved - the Poincare conjecture - by Grigori Perelman. There are 6 remaining.

There are 17ish years left before this market closes.

Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
31% chance
Which Millenium Problems will be among the last 3 to be solved?
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
12% chance
Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last?
When will one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved?
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
45% chance
Will a new problem be added to the Millennium Prize Problems by the end of 2030?
3% chance
Will a Millennium Prize problem be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI?
3% chance
Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?
Sort by:

I think that AlphaProof and other Theorem proving AI will become super-human in the next 15 years. They already can solve various IMO problems and there is no reason to think they do not scale.

@Grothenfla I mean, I certainly wouldn't count out the possibility. But nuclear power and self-driving cars didn't scale yet, and I don't think that solving all of mathematics is just like solving various IMO problems. We have robots that can clean rooms but they can't pick up everything in your desk and sort it. So it's not obvious to me that this will happen in the next 15 years. I'm not saying it definitely won't happen. I'm a NO here.

bought Ṁ300 NO

P vs NP alone makes this functionally impossible

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 33% order

@traders I've put some NO limit orders.

@sbares

sbares boughtṀ1,000NO

@firstuserhere Mana where my mouth is.

So people don't think a superintelligence will be able so solve all the Millennium problems? Or are the markets just mispriced.

@TimothyCurrie I think your linked market is laughably overpriced and I have guesses on why.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 30% order

@justifieduseofFallibilism Super intelligence is an extremely vague term and there's no resolution criteria.

People are also trading

Will another Millennium Problem be resolved before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
31% chance
Which Millenium Problems will be among the last 3 to be solved?
Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027?
12% chance
Which of the seven millennium problems will be solved last?
When will one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved?
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
45% chance
Will a new problem be added to the Millennium Prize Problems by the end of 2030?
3% chance
Will a Millennium Prize problem be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI?
3% chance
Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy