Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

1kṀ8326

2029

39%

chance

ALL

Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

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Millennium Prize Problems

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Arbitrage

https://www.ft.com/content/72d2c2b1-493b-4520-ae10-41c1a7f3b7e4

@MalachiteEagle Going from "they will solve some important conjectures" to "they will solve a millenium prize problem" is peak availability heuristic

Interesting that the probability of this has gone up lately. Maybe people think the room-temperature superconductor will help solve the Millennium problems.