Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030? | Manifold

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

79

1kṀ8146

2029

44%

chance

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6H

1D

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1M

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Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

Millennium Prize Problems

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https://www.ft.com/content/72d2c2b1-493b-4520-ae10-41c1a7f3b7e4

@MalachiteEagle Going from "they will solve some important conjectures" to "they will solve a millenium prize problem" is peak availability heuristic

Interesting that the probability of this has gone up lately. Maybe people think the room-temperature superconductor will help solve the Millennium problems.

Why'd everyone bet this so far down without also betting on the identical market in the comments? There's an easy dutch book now.

predictedNO

Dutch book opportunity:

This is the AI's interpretation of what a Millennium Prize looks like:

Millenium Prize

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Will a new problem be added to the Millennium Prize Problems by the end of 2030?

Related questions

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030?

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Will all Millennium Prize problems by solved by the end of the century?

Will a new problem be added to the Millennium Prize Problems by the end of 2030?

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